WEEK 3
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Predictions will generally be posted by Friday each week,
AND the analyses should be up by Wednesday following each weekend’s games.
The odds that I quote on each game are the first available and are quite
possibly subject to change as the game day approaches.
WEEK 3 Sep 4-6
All times are Mountain Standard Time
WEEK 3
At the end of week 2, we have the improbable scenario of Hull with 6 points. They might extend their tally to 9 after they meet Aston Villa this week. There I think their run will end as they have to face Chelsea after that. Not too many other surprises. Manchester United steamrollered Ipswich, and Arsenal were appalling against Aston Villa, even if they did win. Liverpool’s sleepwalking start to the season, and Spurs’ horrendous form must surely change before long. Speaking of Spurs. I wasn’t aware that they were looking for a replacement for Timo Werner. Well it looks like they found one. Chelsea had a problem. How to get rid of Mykhailo Mudryk. As I pointed out in my pre-season summary, this player was suspended for 4 years for doping. Inexplicitly he was reprieved after 2 years, and he returned to Chelsea. To be fair, he wasn’t any good either with or without the drugs, and hasn’t played in two years. Well Spurs to the rescue. They decide to pick him up. With no shortage of bonehead moves in the Premier League already this season, this has to be right at the top. All Spurs’ fans can hope for is that he doesn’t get any playing time. As for the upcoming week, the Red Devils should be all over Everton, and I’m expecting Chelsea to make a statement when they go across town to Arsenal.
WEEK 3 GAME 1 – FRI Sept 4th 1:00Click on Podcasts to watch or listen to Harry’s Prognosis of this game. |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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IPSWICH |
LIVERPOOL |
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| Odds +1 | O/U 3 | Odds -1 | |||||
| PROGNOSIS: In their last two games, Liverpool showed nothing that would indicate that they are anywhere close to their past abilities. I don’t know what their problems are? Alexander Isak, even if he is match fit, is not showing that he was worth close to what Liverpool paid for him. For some reason, Milo Kerkez gets a start every week. Most of the time he reminds me of a headless chicken, but without the focus. That just singles out two, and I know there is much more criticism to go around. Ipswich look completely out of their depth, and after getting mangled last week at Old Trafford, this week looks kind of bleak. On a normal day, Liverpool should make short work of this lot. The way they are playing, who knows, I’ll take them to win, but without a lot of confidence. Liverpool -1 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-2 | |||||||
| POSTMORTEM: Liverpool has finally started to show evidence of past form. But only just. The first 10-minutes were explosive. Alexander Isak scored two goals three minutes apart to get things going. At that point, and for much of the first half, they looked unstoppable. The second period was a different story. The same team that has turned up in their two previous games returned and Ipswich started to find their feet. A more capable side would have made Liverpool pay for their sloppy play and lack of imagination, but that’s not who Ipswich are. The Reds must be close to giving up on Florian Wirtz. He cost North of $125 mill last year and so far hasn’t produced anything that would justify a continued place on the team. Same goes for our old friend Milo Kerkez. The sooner they can find someone, anyone, that can play whatever position he is supposed to occupy, the better. His favorite play is still the backwards pass, that is if he can keep the ball long enough before someone relieves him of it. Added to that, it seems the only time anyone passes the ball to him is when there are no other options, even his own guys are wary of him, and not in a good way. | |||||||
WEEK 3 GAME 2 – Sat Sept 5th 5:30
Click on Podcasts to watch or listen to Harry’s Prognosis of this game. |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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NEWCASTLE |
BOURNEMOUTH |
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| Odds -1/2 | O/U 3 | Odds +1/2 | |||||
| PROGNOSIS: Newcastle’s 4 points from the first two games looks pretty good at this point. I think they are going to need these early points before the dust settles. Bournemouth are great at giving up games that they were winning. but at the moment they are a more reliable side than Newcastle. I see this as a Bournemouth specialty, a draw. Therefore I’ll take the 1/2 goal edge. Bournemouth +1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-2 | |||||||
| POSTMORTEM: This is starting to get old. Once again Bournemouth throw away a lead, and a game, that they had comfortably in their back pocket. The Cherries were two goals up in the first half hour, and were all over Newcastle like Dracula on a plate of liver. Apart from the two goals, they wasted numerous chances, or it would have been much, much worse. The thing about Bournemouth is they don’t lose many matches, they don’t win many either, as they are the Kings of the draw. Slowly the Magpies started to improve, but not by much. Their only two shots on goal paid dividends. That says more about Bournemouth’s lack of concentration than any measurable skill on Newcastle’s part. In fact they were supremely lucky to get anything out of this game, and they are going to have a hard season if things don’t change. You can’t always rely on as soft a side as Bournemouth when you need a result. The last ten minutes of any game seem to be the danger zone as they give up goals in just the last minutes. Whether they’re all feeling tired or just want the game to end, I don’t know, but they are going to have to fix this problem if they are to improve their League standing over previous years. | |||||||
WEEK 3 GAME 3 – Sat Sept 5th 8:00Click on Podcasts to watch or listen to Harry’s Prognosis of this game. |
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BRENTFORD |
SUNDERLAND |
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| Odds -1 | O/U 2-1/2 | Odds + 1 | |||||
| PROGNOSIS: Sunderland were unlucky in their first game of the season by getting beat by Ipswich. Amends were made last week, but facing Brentford in London may be a bit more of a challenge. Nevertheless I see the Black Cats improving as the season progresses. They may not win this, but I don’t think Brentford will win by 2 clear goals. To me the bet looks like a push (that means that Brentford will win, but only by the one goal). So I’m going to take Sunderland to keep it close. Sunderland +1 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-1 | |||||||
| POSTMORTEM: In all the major metrics, these two teams were about equal across the board. In a spirited affair, both had their chances and both had goals disallowed by VAR. Vitaly Janelt had the Bees ahead shortly after the break and Sunderland had to wait until the 82nd-minute to draw even with the awarding of a penalty. The result leaves Brentford unbeaten in their first three games and Sunderland comfortably in the middle of the pack with four points. This may get a little tougher in the upcoming weeks as they face Arsenal, Manchester City and Brighton before the first International break. |
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WEEK 3 GAME 4 – Sat Sept 5th 8:00
Click on Podcasts to watch or listen to Harry’s Prognosis of this game. |
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BRIGHTON |
LEEDS |
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| Odds -1/2 | O/U 2 2-1/2 | Odds +1/2 | |||||
| PROGNOSIS: Brighton are a solid team, especially at home. Unfortunate result at Chelsea last week, where I think they deserved at least a draw. Leeds are on the ascension, but I think they are coming up against a team that has bags of confidence and ability. I think the Seagulls, in their own backyard, can get back on track here and take all the spoils. Brighton -1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-1 | |||||||
| POSTMORTEM: Leeds continue to be a tough nut to crack and although they only had the ball for 1/3rd of the match, it was they that took the early lead. For many years Leeds have not found any joy down on the South Coast. The last time they won at Brighton was 17 years ago, but that looked like it might change when Jadon Bogle slotted home the first goal for Leeds in the 15th-minute. After that Leeds had many, many more chances and Dominic Calvert-Lewin alone could have had a hat-trick all to himself. As the game progressed, Brighton gained confidence and in the 71st-minute, Luka Vuskovic had the game level. The game was Leeds to lose and they may be kicking themselves at the end of the year when two points they should have claimed here slipped through their fingers. | |||||||
WEEK 3 GAME 5 – Sat Sept 5th 8:00
Click on Podcasts to watch or listen to Harry’s Prognosis of this game. |
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FULHAM |
CRYSTAL PALACE |
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| Odds -1/2 | O/U 2-1/2 | Odds +1/2 | |||||
| PROGNOSIS: It’s about time Fulham got this season going, and what better chance than against a hopeless Crystal Palace team that should start looking at next year’s opponents, in the Championship League. There is lots of new talent on this Fulham side, and despite their manager’s disgust at their performance at Sunderland last week, I think they will make things right this week. Fulham – 1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-3 | |||||||
| POSTMORTEM: Fulham have to be one of the most unfortunate teams in the Premier League, I won’t say unlucky because to some degree you make your own luck. They should have had this game done and dusted. Crystal Palace are all at sea, and if you can’t get a result against this bunch of misfits, who are you going to get a result against? Fulham had the lead twice, but gave it up three times. The stats show complete superiority for the Cottagers, 21 shots, 2/3rd’s possession and 91% pass accuracy, what more do you need to win a game? One has to believe that this is a work in progress and that they will improve as the season progresses, but their start to this season is very reminiscent of last year’s opening few games. They did settle down eventually and put together some decent results. This year’s players are an improvement over last year’s but they need to get this puppy out of the gate. Next week’s match-up does not look too promising as they are away to Liverpool, and then they face Manchester United. They did put on a better showing than the previous week and it shows in the stats, if not in the results. As for Palace, they can count themselves very fortunate to come away with all three points, again looking at the stats, they are not going to get as many fortunate results down the road playing the way they did here. | |||||||
WEEK 1 GAME 6 – Sat Sept 5th 8:00
Click on Podcasts to watch or listen to Harry’s Prognosis of this game. |
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MANCHESTER CITY |
COVENTRY |
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| Odds -2 | O/U 3 1/2 | Odds +2 | |||||
| PROGNOSIS: This should be a bloodbath. City are a 2-goal favorite and going on the last couple of games, they should have no trouble in scoring as many as they like against a Coventry team that up until this point has been something of a disappointment. I had optimistic hopes for the Sky Blues before this season started, but after their last couple of efforts, I’ll be surprised if they gather any points at all this season. Manchester City -2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-0 | |||||||
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POSTMORTEM: Well three points are three points and Manchester City will be thankful for them, but in a game that had City with 78% of the ball the score should have reflected their complete dominance over the newly promoted side. All of the City players had a decent enough game, but how do you allow Coventry three shots on target while you only manage three yourself. The victory is nice, but there’s not much to be proud of here. Realistically is not easy to see where Coventry are going to collect any points this year with their style of play, and this season may be very frustrating for the Sky Blues. The Citizens need to find out what’s wrong with their team, because only beating this outfit by one goal should send alarm bells ringing. Maybe this was just a one-off, but they need to stop dicking around and bury these kind of teams if they are to be real contenders to Arsenal’s League crown. |
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WEEK 3 GAME 7 – Sat Set 5th 8:00
Click on Podcasts to watch or listen to Harry’s Prognosis of this game. |
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NOTTINGHAM FOREST |
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR |
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| Odds PICK | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds PICK | |||||
| PROGNOSIS: Here’s another game that should be a no-brainer. Spurs should have this in the bag…..but, well this is Spurs after all. One day the new, improved Tottenham will turn up, question is, when? They won’t get a better chance than this week at Notts Forest. Forest are a team in disarray. One point earned at Liverpool may put a little spark back in their step, but I wouldn’t bank on it. The more I think about this, the more confusing it becomes. I’m going out on a limb here and saying Tottenham, but I won’t be surprised if I’m wrong. Tottenham PICK’EM. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-0 | |||||||
| POSTMORTEM: The good news for Spurs is they didn’t lose, the bad news is they didn’t win either. Nottingham Forest are there for the taking this year but a sub-standard Tottenham still couldn’t get it done. A draw here was a fair result as neither team deserved to win. Spurs are still looking for their first goal of the season, which will be difficult if you don’t even have one shot on target. Forest weren’t much better with only one attempt themselves. Spurs did have a few opportunities in front of goal but messed up every time. The clock is ticking for manager De Zerbi and after all the money that has been spent, results need to be forthcoming. His stewardship saved Spurs from the drop last year, and the goodwill that he gained from that success is starting to wear thin. Spurs’ fans are starting to question some of his decisions. He insists on playing Connor Gallagher, who contributes absolutely nothing, and people are scratching their heads at bringing on Mudryk as a substitute at the 74th-minute mark. With all his spending, De Zerbi must have other choices but he goes with a guy who hasn’t played in two years, and wasn’t any good when he did. I know he has a history with the Ukrainian, but now is not the time to experiment with someone who is questionable at best. Talking about questionable, Forest have a long hard road ahead of them this year, and even though it’s early, I still think they are good candidates for the drop. | |||||||
WEEK 1 GAME 8 – Sat Sept 5th 8:00
Click on Podcasts to watch or listen to Harry’s Prognosis of this game. |
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HULL |
ASTON VILLA |
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| Odds +1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds -1/2 | |||||
| PROGNOSIS: No denying Hull are off to a great start, but in all fairness, they haven’t looked good doing it. The two teams that they have faced so far have been worse. That could be the case again as Aston Villa are hopeless right now. Villa just might get it together, but a goal-less draw seems more likely. I’m saying. NO BET | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-0 | |||||||
| POSTMORTEM: Well I nailed that didn’t I, the goal-less draw bit. Like Spurs, Villa have yet to score a goal this season. Going by what was on show at Hull, they may have to wait a while longer. Lets get this into perspective. Hull may be unbeaten, but again, only having the ball 25% of the time is not going to help much as the season progresses. They are going to crash and burn before long and the seven points that they currently have are going to be the best run of the entire season for the Tigers. Doesn’t say much for Aston Villa, but then there isn’t much good that can be said for this lot. At the moment both these teams deserve one another. Villa will improve, eventually, Hull not so much. In fact Hull are not what you would call an exciting team to watch, unless you live on Humberside I guess. | |||||||
WEEK 3 GAME 9 – Sun Sept 6th 7:00
Click on Podcasts to watch or listen to Harry’s Prognosis of this game. |
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EVERTON |
MANCHESTER UNITED |
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| Odds +1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds -1/2 | |||||
| PROGNOSIS: Everton may have 4 points from 2 games right now, but that’s all they will have at the end of this game. United thumped 5 past Ipswich last week, and I see no reason why they can’t do the same here. Everton have sold anyone that had any inkling of talent and have not been able to find replacements. This is a team that is heading straight off a cliff, and Manchester would be happy to give them a little nudge. Manchester United -1/2. |
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| RESULTS: 2-2 | |||||||
| POSTMORTEM: What the Hell happened here. There is no way this should have ended in a draw. Everton are as lucky as Fulham are unlucky. United should have run riot over a side that for the second week in a row saved a point in the dying seconds. Benjamin Sesko came on as a substitute and scored with just two minutes from full time to put United 2-1 up. There were 5 minutes added on at the end and for some reason, that stretched to 6 minutes and with the last touch of the game Ainsley Maitland-Niles came off the bench and thundered home the equalizer. United switched off at the end and threw away two points. Everton started Brennan Johnson and he did have a few touches of the ball, but with his usual results, zilch. He was substituted in the 66th-minute and Jack Grelish took his place, and was a vast improvement. Eventually Everton will see Johnson’s true worth, about the same as a cheese sandwich by my reckoning. No one on the Everton side had an outstanding game, just about 5 out of 10 for the whole lot, but still came away with an unexpected draw. | |||||||
WEEK 3 GAME 10 – Sun Sept 6th 9:30
Click on Podcasts to watch or listen to Harry’s Prognosis of this game. |
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ARSENAL |
CHELSEA |
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| Odds -1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds +1/2 | |||||
| PROGNOSIS: This should be the game of the week. Arsenal are just asking to get beat if they play like they did last week. Chelsea’s attack has started to click and Cole Palmer is back in form. Granted their defense is still shaky, so maybe over the 2 1/2 goals is the bet, but as it stands right now I’ll go with the Blues to give Arsenal a wake-up call. Chelsea +1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-1 | |||||||
| POSTMORTEM: At least Chelsea made Arsenal play. Morgan Rogers woke them up with two minutes on the clock when he opened the scoring for the Blues. Kai Havertz had the Gunners level 22 minutes later, and although the game became a hard fought contest with chances for either team, Arsenal always looked the ones most likely to score next. Chelsea’s old problems in defense were there for all to see. Players out of position and large gaps left unattended. Chelsea were lucky that they weren’t further behind when Martin Odegaard did just that. Shortly after the break he had the home team 2-1 to the good. The game ended with a 2-1 score, and although it looked close on the scoresheet, it really wasn’t that close. Chelsea have taken steps to remedy their goalkeeper problem, but if they don’t address their defensive shortcomings, they are going to be susceptible to any enterprising team that can get into scoring positions at will it seems. | |||||||