WEEK 7
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Predictions will generally be posted by Friday each week,
AND the analyses should be up by Wednesday following each weekend’s games.
The odds that I quote on each game are the first available and are quite
possibly subject to change as the game day approaches.
WEEK 7 October 3-5
,All times are Mountain Standard Time
LAST WEEK’S SUMMARY
A change in the number one spot in the Premier League. With Arsenal’s win over West Ham and Liverpool falling to Chelsea, the Gunners leapfrog over the Reds to claim pole position. I think the biggest surprise so far this season, with the exception of Crystal Palace’s unbeaten run, is the emergence of Bournemouth. They currently sit in fourth position, and while I don’t see them finishing that high by the time May rolls around, this is an excellent, albeit unexpected, start to the season for the Cherries. I was very disappointed in my Gold Star pick this week. Manchester City should have swept the floor with Brentford, but they seemed to think one goal was enough and eased off in the second half. As it happened, City won by the one goal which made the bet a push. Better than losing I suppose, but if I could have got in when they were only 1/2-goal favorites, it would have been a different story. Oh Well! An International break this week so I will be back next week as soon as the new odds are posted.
Thanks and Good Luck, Harry
WEEK 7 GAME 1 – Fri 3rd Oct 1:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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BOURNEMOUTH |
FULHAM |
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| Odds -1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds +1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: At this point I think Bournemouth have shown that they are just not a flash in the pan. While they were unlucky at Leeds last week Fulham should never have let their game at Aston Villa slip through their fingers. Bournemouth are at home which should give them the edge so it’s Cherries for me. Bournemouth -1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 3-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: The rain was coming down in buckets and the wind was swirling all over the place. The conditions made for less than precise football. In the first half, Bournemouth were relentless in attack but against the run of play Fulham managed to score first. Their celebrations only lasted about eight minutes before Antoine Semenyo scored the first of his two goals for the afternoon. Six minutes later subsitute Justin Kluivert hit a screamer from 25 yards out that left goalkeeper Bernd Leno no chance. Fulham started to come into the game and were pushing for an equalizer when Semenyo broke free and scored his second with almost the last touch of the game. Bournemouth continue their impressive run while Fulham go home to lick their wounds. | |||||||
WEEK 7 GAME 2 – Sat 4th Oct 5:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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LEEDS |
TOTTENHAM |
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| Odds PICK | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds PICK | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Leeds are very hard to beat at home, 23 games without a home loss, but maybe this is the week. Tottenham have shown that even with a new manager and some new faces at heart they are still the same old Spurs. They can get good results against the top teams but stumble when it comes to the lesser opponents. With saying that I’m still going with the Londoners here without much degree of confidence. Tottenham. PICK | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-2 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Tottenham came North and spoiled Leeds’ 23 game unbeaten home record. It was a close run, and truth be told, it could have gone either way. The opening 20 minutes saw a lot of pressure from Spurs and they were rewarded in the 23rd minute when Mathys Tel scored a deflected goal to give the visitors the lead. Leeds came looking for the equalizer and Noah Okafor was standing at the far post when a shot by Brenden Aaronson was punched out by goalkeeper Vicario straight to the feet of Okafor who had no trouble slotting the ball home. Shortly after the break, Mohammed Kudus put Tottenham ahead and from there on it was mostly Leeds, but they couldn’t find the equalizer. A fortunate three points for Spurs but three points nonetheless. | |||||||
WEEK 7 GAME 3 – Sat 4th Oct 8:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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MANCHESTER UNITED |
SUNDERLAND |
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| Odds -1 | O/U 3 | Odds +1 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Manchester United’s efforts against Brentford last week were a dumpster fire compared to Sunderland’s first away win of the season. If they haven’t done it already United are going to need a new manager, someone who can get this crowd of underachievers motivated. I fear it wont happen this week therefore I’ll take the Black Cats especially with a one goal advantage. Sunderland +1 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-0 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: It only took eight minutes for Mason Mount to put United in front and another one by Benjamin Sesko at the 31 minute mark was all that was needed to give Manchester only their second win of the season. They were in desperate need of the points and maybe the pressure on manager Ruben Amorim will be eased a tad. Still not enough to save his job I fear, because even chalking up a win they still didn’t look like the rest of the season was going to be a walk in the park. A 2-nil result looks good, but as ineffective as Sunderland were they still had the ball almost 50% of the time. United introduced a much needed new goalkeeper, Senne Lammens, who did manage to keep a clean sheet but—— Having to rely on booting the ball as far up field as you can as soon as you get a goal kick is only going to get you so far. Amorim is going to need a better game plan than that if United are going to see much more success. | |||||||
WEEK 7 GAME 4 – Sat 4th Oct 8:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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ARSENAL |
WEST HAM |
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| Odds Pick -2 | O/U 2 | Odds +2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: West Ham stole a point from Everton last week which says more about the inadequacies of The Toffees than the quality of the Hammers. Arsenal should wipe the floor with this lot but I don’t like these big points spreads. To cover this bet Arsenal have to win by three clear goals, and while that is quite possible I’d hate so see a two goal lead and then watch them sit back in defense and watch as West Ham beat themselves against a wall so for me this is a no bet. No Bet. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-0 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: 21 shots for Arsenal against 4 for West Ham, and two thirds of the possession just about sums it up. The Gunners went into this game as 2 goal favorites and much as I expected after the second goal, they took their foot off the gas and coasted the rest of the way. West Ham were their same useless self and didn’t really look like they had a clue. Next time out they face Brentford; if I had tickets for that game, I’d be giving them away. Martin Odegaard went off injured for the third time in as many games and a big question mark followed him off the pitch. Seems like Arsenal’s captain is not quite ready for a return to the 1st team. The win puts the Gunners on top of the league, for now at least. | |||||||
WEEK 7 GAME 5 – Sat 4th Oct 10:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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CHELSEA |
LIVERPOOL |
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| Odds Pick | O/U 3 | Odds Pick | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Even after dominating last weeks game against Crystal Palace Liverpool came up short. They also suffered a defeat in the UEFA cup in the week against a team they should have beaten. Chelsea are all over the place, especially with the absence of Cole Palmer and I cant see the Reds losing three in a row. Liverpool. PICK | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: It’s been a long time since Liverpool have lost three games in a row, but here we are. They had been trailing Chelsea for much of the game until Cody Gapko put one in at the 63-minute mark. Towards the close of the game, it was end to end but it looked very much like a draw until the 5th minute of injury time when 18-year old Estevao stepped up and snatched all three points from a disappointed Liverpool. The Reds have been getting results without playing really well and there seems to be something amiss. At the moment, they don’t have the luxury of a points cushion separating them from the rest of the pack. In fact Arsenal just jumped over them to grab the number one spot. To call Chelsea erratic would be a gross understatement! You don’t seem to know what team is going to turn up week after week. The Blues are away to Notts Forest next time out and that should see them climb up the League ladder a place or two. | |||||||
WEEK XX GAME 6 – DAY MON DATE TIME |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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NEWCASTLE |
NOTTINGHAM |
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| Odds -1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds +1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: I fear Ange Postecoglou will have to wait a while longer for his first win at Nottingham Forest. They are not where they want to be just yet and an Alexander Isak-less Newcastle are erratic to say the least. The Magpies at home used to be formidable but in the last year or so they seem to have lost that home team advantage just a tad. That said I think Newcastle will be too strong for the Trees this weekend. Newcastle -1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-0 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: After a very shaky start to the season, Newcastle look like they are finally getting with the program. On the other side of the pitch, Notts Forest’s new manager, Ange Postecoglou, has had a nightmare start to his tenure in charge of a lackluster side. This was his seventh losing game since taking over, and the immediate future doesn’t look much better. At home to Chelsea, who just beat League- leaders Liverpool, are their next opponents. Captain Bruno Guimaraes opened the scoring for the Magpies, but had to wait for the second half before he could claim it. Close to the end, new boy Nick Woltemade, converted a penalty to take his tally to three goals in as many matches and that gave Newcastle only their second win of the season, but perhaps they are on the comeback trail, which is more than can be said for the hapless Tricky Trees at the moment. | |||||||
WEEK 7 GAME 7 – Sun 5th Oct 7:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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ASTON VILLA |
BURNLEY |
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| Odds -1 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds +1 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Aston Villa scored three times last week in their best result, if not their best performance, of the season. I’m not convinced they can repeat that. On the other hand Burnley let five slip past them last time out, not very encouraging I’d say. For Villa to win by two goals may be a bit of a stretch so I’m going with a no bet on this one. No Bet | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Aston Villa are slowly improving. Two goals by Donyell Malen gave all the points to the Villans and although it is still early Burnley don’t look to be in a good place. Just before being substituted, Malen scored his second goal and even though Burnley halved the score with a Lesley Ugochukkwu header in the 78th minute it was too little too late for the struggling Clarets. It could have been worse, Villa felt they should have been awarded a penalty when they thought Morgan Rogers had been fouled in the area, but referee Andrew Kitchen wasn’t convinced. There is improvement at Villa, but they still have lots to do. At the moment Burnley have no points from any of their away games, and unless they start getting results from their next couple of games, Leeds, and Wolves, the hill they have to climb is going to get steeper and steeper. | |||||||
WEEK 7 GAME 8 – Sun 5th Oct 7:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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WOLVERHAMPTON |
BRIGHTON |
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| Odds +1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds -1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Let’s not kid ourselves One point gathered at the expense of Tottenham last week does in no way indicate that Wolves have turned a corner. Brighton are not what you would call the model of consistency but expect the home team to revert back to their tried a tested form and go down to a rampaging flock of Seagulls. Brighton -1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Brighton were all over Wolves like a cheap suit. Wolves manager, Vitor Pereira, was sent packing after a fit of rage over something he didn’t like and spent the rest of the game up in the stands. Shortly after his dismissal, at the 21-minute mark, Wolves managed to go in front. A headed ball by Marshall Munetsi bounced off the crossbar, hit goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen, and went into the goal. That was the way it stayed and Wolverhampton looked like they were going to notch up their first win of the season. But in the second time in as many weeks, the home team were denied a victory in the closing minutes. Jan Paul van Hecke placed a header out of goalkeeper Sam Johnstone’s reach to salvage a point for the Seagulls. At that point, Johnstone had pulled off many first class saves to keep Wolves in the game as Brighton piled on the pressure. Wolves will be thankful of the point, but their overall performance was not encouraging and the rest of this season is going to be long, hard and ultimately disappointing. | |||||||
WEEK 7 GAME 9 – Sun 5th Oct 9:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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EVERTON |
CRYSTAL PALACE |
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| Odds PICK | O/U 2 | Odds PICK | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: No reason to see Crystal Palace lose their unbeaten record here. Everton on the other hand could be looking at their first loss in their new stadium. I am as surprised as anyone on the Eagles record so far and it may take a few weeks for reality to catch up, but catch up it will. I’ll take Palace to claim their second Mersey side scalp in as many weeks. Crystal Palace PICK. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Bang goes the last unbeaten team in the Premier League. Everton were one goal down for much of the game and although they didn’t look particularly sharp, the statistics for the game show that in all of the major categories these two teams were about equal. Everton left it late. A 76-minute penalty taken by Iliman Ndiaye leveled up the score, but a last gasp effort by Jack Grealish at 90+3 shared the Toffees’ blushes, and brought the curtain down on Crystal Palace’s 19 game unbeaten run. That being said Everton still looked second best for much of the game and while Grealish brings an extra dimension to the Mersey-side team they are still walking a fine line. A good start in their new stadium, but I don’t think it can last much longer before the reality sets in. | |||||||
WEEK 10 GAME 10 – Sun 5th Oct 9:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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BRENTFORD |
MANCHESTER CITY |
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| Odds +1 | O/U 3 | Odds -1 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Maybe the odds makers know something I don’t. I would think a 1/2 goal handicap for City against a team that is one step away from hopeless is a misprint. Brentford may have beaten Manchester U last week but the way United played I think the little Sisters of the Poor could have gotten a result against them. I’m going to get on this one early in case/before the odds change . Manchester City -1/2. Before I had a chance to post this the odds did go out to -1 goal for City. I think it’s a good bet Manchester City -1 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: All in all, a pretty disappointing game. Fair enough City did claim all the points. Once Earling Haaland had opened the scoring in the ninth minute it looked like a bloodbath. A full 70% possession on behalf of the Manchester side could have seen this as at least a 5-0 victory and that would have been a fair result. After spending nearly a year out nursing an ACL injury, City mid-fielder Rodri had to retire with what looked like a hamstring problem. Brentford were never in this game, which quiet frankly didn’t surprise me, but what did was the fact that City couldn’t score more goals. The early odds showed City as 1/2 goal favorites which I thought a great bet, but within hours it went out to 1 goal and therefore this game ended up as a push. | |||||||