Hotshot Harry's Premier League

WEEK 27

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Predictions will generally be posted by Friday each week,
AND the analyses should be up by Wednesday following each weekend’s games.

The odds that I quote on each game are the first available and are quite
possibly subject to change as the game day approaches. 

WEEK 27 February 18th, 21st, 22nd

All times are Mountain Standard Time

LAST WEEK’S SUMMARY

WEEK 26

Well, the big news from last week was the sackings of coaches Thomas Frank at Tottenham and Sean Dyche of Nottingham Forest. I thought Dyche had done a decent job of clawing Forest out of the relegation zone, but I guess the owner saw it a little differently. Evangelos Marinakis has to be a bit of a flake. This is his fourth manager this season. The way Marinakis operates, Vitor Pereira may not be his last. I’ve never owned a football team, but changing the manager every five minutes seems like a recipe for disaster. Not quite as volatile, but not far behind in the manager merry-go-round, Spurs decide on a change as well. To sum it up, Tottenham are having a terrible season, again. Lots of key injuries don’t help, but as I mentioned a few weeks ago, they just do not have the top-quality personnel on the field. Not sure if it was all Franks’ fault, but the new guy, Igor Tudor will have his work cut out for him. Both these new gaffers face a baptism of fire this week with Forest playing Liverpool and Spurs playing their old nemesis, Arsenal.

WEEK 27 GAME  – Wednesday 18th Feb 1:00
HOME AWAY

WOLVERHAMPTON
The Wolves

ARSENAL
The Gunners
Odds +1 1/2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds -1 1/2
PREDICTIONS: I doubt that you will get to see this before the game starts, but I am writing this on Tuesday night so I don’t know how it will turn out. Well, I do and I don’t. It would be a major upset; I said MAJOR upset, if this went anyway other than the obvious. Arsenal -1 1/2
RESULTS: 2-2
ANALYSIS:  Well, this didn’t turn out like anyone expected. Going two goals up, the Gunners had this game won at a walk, but Wolves were not going to go down without a fight. Arsenal were lethargic and looked to be underrating their opponents. In the end they were punished for their lack of enthusiasm when Thomas Edozie scored in injury time. It was later ruled an own-goal having bounced off of Riccardo Calafiori before it went into the net. If Manchester City can beat Newcastle at the weekend, they will be within two points of the front runners.

WEEK 27 GAME 1 – Sat Feb 21st
HOME AWAY

BRENTFORD
The Bees

BRIGHTON
The Seagulls
Odds – 1/2 O/U 2 1/2  Odds + 1/2
PREDICTIONS: I have to say I severely misjudged Brentford this season. They turned out a lot more successful than I expected. Brighton can be a problem for any team, especially if they are at home, which they are not here. I think this one is best left alone. No Bet.
RESULTS: 0-2
ANALYSIS:  Brentford were expecting to get something out of this game, but they came up short. Lots of action and missed opportunities in the first half, but the Seagulls were two goals up going into the half. Strikes by Diego Gomez and Danny Welbeck had the visitors in front with a big hill to climb for the Bees in the second half. Only 45 seconds into the restart had Igor Thiago just miss a header that went wide and flubbed chances by Dango Quattara, Mikkel Damsgaard and again by Thiago saw lots of effort by Brentford to get back in the game. In the end it wasn’t going to go Brentford’s way, and Brighton went home with all the points.

WEEK 27 GAME 2 – Sat Feb 21st 8:00
HOME AWAY

ASTON VILLA
The Villans

LEEDS
The Whites
Odds -1/2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds +1/2
PREDICTIONS: Despite their League position, Villa have been very disappointing, especially at home. They are not what you would call a goal-scoring machine. If they are to have any hope of finishing in the top four, they need games like this. Not sure they can get it done. Nevertheless. Aston Villa -1/2.
RESULTS: 1-1
ANALYSIS: Something’s not right at Aston Villa. The fact that they are third in the table would suggest something different, but I’m saying right now that the way they are playing, they will not finish in the top four and will be lucky to finish in the top eight. They have dropped too many points against teams that they should have beaten; and to escape this game with a point was exactly that, an escape. If you have the ball 3/4 of the time, and if your pass accuracy is almost 20% better than your opponent, then you shouldn’t have to rely on an equalizer two minutes from time to save a little face. Granted Leeds can be tough, but they should be ripe for the picking when they come to your home ground. There’s talent at Villa, no doubt, but somethings not clicking, that being said, good job by Leeds.

WEEK 27 GAME 3 – Sat Feb 21st 8:00
HOME AWAY

CHELSEA
The Blues 

BURNLEY
The Clarets
Odds -2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds +2
PREDICTIONS: Well, it doesn’t take a physic to see that Burnley are history as far as the Premier League are concerned. That being said, Chelsea will win this, but by three clear goals? Situations like this would favor the underdog, so I’m not expecting them to get anything out of this game, but I will take the spread. Burnley +2
RESULTS: 1-1
ANALYSIS:  Well, what went wrong here? Chelsea’s inability to finish off opponents when they have them on the ropes, plus their lack of discipline, that’s what’s wrong! Only four minutes in, the Blues were one goal up courtesy of a Joao Pedro goal and had the game well in hand. They should have had more against an inferior team, but took their foot off the pedal and began to coast. Then when Wesley Fofana got sent off in the 72nd minute, Chelsea’s gameplan, such as it was, went out the window. That was their eighth red card of the season, and truth be told, even after conceding the tying goal, three minutes into injury time, the Blues were lucky to escape with a draw as Jacob Larsen screwed up an easy header for Burnley in the last touch of the game.

WEEK 27 GAME 4 – Sat Feb 21st 10:30
HOME AWAY

WEST HAM
The Hammers

BOURNEMOUTH
The Cherries
Odds Pick O/U 2 1/2 Odds Pick
PREDICTIONS: One cannot deny that West Ham have started to put together some results, at long last. That being said, Bournemouth have put together a resurrection of their own. I still think The Hammers are headed for the nether regions, so I’m going with the visitors. Bournemouth PICK.
RESULTS: 0-0
ANALYSIS:  West Ham have only lost one of their last six League games, which is a far cry from their start of the season. Even so, this was a reminder of just about how ineffective the Hammers are. If they had someone who could put the ball in the net, maybe they wouldn’t be in the mess that they find themselves in. This was, for the most part, a non-event. Bournemouth’s run of seven unbeaten games might look good, but realistically a “Pick” for this game was about right. All I can say is I’m glad I’m not a supporter of either team.

WEEK 27 GAME 5 – Sat Feb 21st 1:00
HOME AWAY

MANCHESTER CITY
The Citizens

NEWCASTLE
The Magpies

 Newcastle United Logo
Odds -1 O/U 31/2 Odds +1
PREDICTIONS: Newcastle have lost their way lately. A win at Tottenham is not really anything to shout about, and apart from that they haven’t produced anything of note for some time. Manchester City on the other hand are starting to find their feet, and I will take them at home to make short work of the Magpies. Manchester City -1
RESULTS: 2-1
ANALYSIS: A brace by Nico O’Riley gave City all the points in a game that the final result would suggest was a lot closer than it actually was. As good as Manchester City were, they should have had this thing wrapped up at half-time. Newcastle could consider themselves lucky that the game was this close, but close don’t get you much in the Premier League. I’ve said it many times before, check the archives, but I think at the end of the season, City will be the Champions, if even at this point Arsenal do have the lead.

WEEK 27 GAME 6 – Sun Feb 22 7:00
HOME AWAY

SUNDERLAND
The Black Cats

FULHAM
The Cottagers
Odds PICK O/U 2 1/2 Odds PICK
PREDICTIONS: The Black Cats at home are formidable. They suffered their first home defeat last week against Liverpool. But it was a close-run thing. I will take them to make amends this week against Fulham. Sunderland. PICK.
RESULTS: 1-3
ANALYSIS:  Maybe the cracks are starting to appear. The Black Cats fell to their second home defeat of the season when Fulham came to town and left with all three points. As far as the stats said, both of these teams were pretty much equal. The difference being the goals. On another day this score could have been reversed but as it was two goals by Raul Jimenez, one a penalty, and another by Alex Iwobi was enough to give Fulham all the away points and put them into the top half of the Premier League.

WEEK 27 GAME 7 – Sun Feb 22nd 7:00
HOME AWAY

CRYSTAL PALACE
The Eagles

WOLVERHAMPTOM
The Wolves
Odds -1 O/U 2 1/2 Odds +1
PREDICTIONS: Wolverhampton might look like they are done, but Palace don’t look much better. The Eagles are favored by a goal which means they have to win by two clear goals, I don’t see that happening. Wolves are bad, but I don’t think they are that bad. Wolverhampton +1
RESULTS: 1-0
ANALYSIS: A very bitter pill for Wolves to swallow here. but let’s be fair, it wouldn’t do them much good at this late stage, even if they had managed a point. They missed a penalty and conceded a goal in the 90th-minute to lose this to a team that maybe had dominated most of the play, but could not find what it took to put these basement dwellers away. It’s hard to see how a team (Crystal Palace) can look worse every time they turn up, but the Eagles do seem to manage it.

WEEK 27 GAME 8 – Sun Feb 22nd 7:00
HOME AWAY

NOTTINGHAM FOREST
The Tricky Trees

LIVERPOOL
The Reds
Odds +1/2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds -1/2
PREDICTIONS: Liverpool should not have too much trouble with this fixture. Forest desperately need the points, but I don’t see them getting them here. The Reds are chasing the top spots, and they seem to have the momentum right now. Even though Forest are struggling to escape the dead zone, they are going to have to wait for another week for any kind of salvation. Liverpool -1/2.
RESULTS: 1-0
ANALYSIS:  I think it needs to be said that Nottingham Forest looked to be much improved, at least in the first half. Liverpool looked like they didn’t get the game plan before they started. In the first half they were useless. Forest pushed them, and they were there for the pushing. For a Liverpool team they were pathetic in the first half, in the second period Forest looked like they had run out of steam, and The Reds got themselves back into the game. A winning goal was disallowed by Mac Allister as it was deemed that it came off his elbow even though he was facing away from the goal. Then seven minutes into injury time, Mac Allister had the ball in the net again and after a lengthy VAR review was ruled to be onside and the score was called good. Even though they lost, it was a promising start for Notts Forest new manager, unlike Spurs’.

WEEK 27 GAME 9 – Sun Feb 22nd 
HOME AWAY

TOTTENHAM
The Spurs 

ARSENAL
The Gunners
Odds +1 O/U 2 1/2 Odds -1/2
PREDICTIONS: This should be interesting. With a new manager and perhaps a new approach, Spurs just might shake off their horrendous season. Wouldn’t be putting my piggy bank savings on it, mind. One would hope for a spirited contest, factor in the so-so form of Arsenal, the pathetic display of Spurs, plus the impact of a hotly contested derby and who knows! We may get a football game. Tottenham +1.
RESULTS: 1-4
ANALYSIS:  It may be too early to tell, but there doesn’t seem to be much improvement in the Tottenham camp. They were their usual inept selves with only a very few sparks of hope that didn’t last long. Arsenal may have made it look easy, but they still don’t look like world beaters. Going in at the half 1-1 needed to be a wake-up call, because they were looking the better side, which wasn’t too hard against a Spurs’ side that is in need of a major turnaround. Not many games left to secure a place in the Premier League next season, so they better get cracking ASAP.

WEEK 27 GAME 10 – Mon Feb 23rd 
HOME AWAY

EVERTON 
The Toffees

MANCHESTER UNITED
The Red Devils
Odds +1/2 O/U 2-1/2 Odds -1/2
PREDICTIONS: United gave up two points against West Ham last week, and I expect they will make amends at the expense of Everton. The Toffees are about as high as they are going to get in the League, and from here all I see is a gradual slide down the table. Manchester United -1/2.
RESULTS: 0-1
ANALYSIS:  Neither side really deserved to win this. In a game that presented few chances, Everton came out in the second half and started to apply some real pressure. Both teams were below par and it took super-sub Benjamin Sesko to rescue all three points, again. Everton have now gone seven games without a win in their new stadium and it’s tough to see where any improvement is coming from. As for United, they have certainly struggled in their last two games and perhaps the shine is starting to come off of a very bright start by new manager, Michael Carrick. Bryan Mbeumo had a very quiet outing and was pulled off at the 71st minute, in favor of eventual goalscorer Sesko.

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