WEEK 30
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Predictions will generally be posted by Friday each week,
AND the analyses should be up by Wednesday following each weekend’s games.
The odds that I quote on each game are the first available and are quite
possibly subject to change as the game day approaches.
WEEK 30 March 14,15,16
All times are Mountain Standard Time
LAST WEEK’S SUMMARY
WEEK 29
A quick look back on last week’s games. Liverpool made hard work of beating Wolves when it should have been cut and dried. The big surprise was that Notts Forest managed to get a draw with Manchester City, which doesn’t do Manchester any favors in the chase against Arsenal. Speaking of Arsenal, they did get all three points at Brighton, but didn’t look particularly good doing it. That seems to be the same refrain every week for the Gunners and yet there they sit on top of the Table. West Ham continue their escape plan and if they can keep it up, they may see the light of Premier League football again next season. Spurs continue their decent into the quagmire of relegation candidates and face a not too promising matchup away at Liverpool this week. Chelsea made short work of Aston Villa, who seem to have completely switched off. After a bit of a slow start for the Blues this season, they look as though they could end up in the top four and a place in Europe next year.
WEEK 30 GAME 1 Sat Mar 14th 9:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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BURNLEY |
BOURNEMOUTH |
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| Odds +1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds -1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: This has the look of a draw on it. Burnley are doomed, have been all season, but they still put up a fight. Bournemouth are the very definition of mediocre, so in this case I would go with whoever has the edge, and that would be the home team. Burnley +1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-0 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Burnley manage to eek out another (useless) point against a side that lived up to their billing as a team that no one would want to risk a lot of money on as far as results go. The game was mostly dull and without much excitement, and as predicted ended in a draw. As far as the stats went, the Cherries had the edge in possession and shots, but both teams only had two attempts on target. The most telling number was pass accuracy. 67% by Burnley is nothing short of atrocious and certainly not good enough for a team playing in the Premier League. But that won’t be a problem for the Claret’s next year, as they will be facing much lower quality teams in the Championship League. | |||||||
WEEK 30 GAME 2 – Sat Mar 14th 9:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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SUNDERLAND |
BRIGHTON |
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| Odds +1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds -1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Again, another game that looks like a draw. Using my simple philosophy of going with the team that is getting the edge, I will take Sunderland. The Cats can be tough at home and if this game was reversed I would go with the Seagulls, but not this week. Sunderland+1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: A bitter pill for Sunderland to swallow as they lost to a Brighton side that scored a goal just after the second half resumed. Sunderland had a goal ruled out because of an offside infringement in the build up, and after the dust settled The Cats were disappointed with losing a game that they looked to have had under control. They always looked more dangerous going forward and there were chances for both teams to expand the score, but neither side could get it done, and Brighton went home with a very lucky three points. | |||||||
WEEK 30 GAME 3 – Sat Mar 14th 11:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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CHELSEA |
NEWCASTLE |
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| Odds -1/2 | O/U 3 | Odds +1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: As we have seen this season, Newcastle are not the best travelers. If Manchester United or Aston Villa slip up this week, Chelsea could leapfrog over them due to their vastly superior goal average. I’ll take the Blues at home to keep up the pressure on the teams currently above them. Chelsea -1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Another result that defies reason. Chelsea had this game in the bag, except they didn’t. With 2/3rds of the possession, 21 shots (only three on target) and a whopping 92% pass accuracy, they should have banked all three points. A sucker punch by Newcastle gave the Magpies the lead when Anthony Gordon tapped home a cross from Joe Willock and stroked it into an empty net. Chelsea did pile on the pressure and came close on multiple occasions, but to no avail as the visitors defense held the Blues at bay. Newcastle certainly did not deserve the win, but that’s life in the Top Tier. |
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WEEK 30 GAME 4 – Sat 14th 11:30 TIME |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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ARSENAL |
EVERTON |
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| Odds -1 1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds +1 1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Arsenal should have this, but they win lots of games by only the one goal, unless they are playing Tottenham. That extra 1/2 a goal is a bit problematic for me, so I’m going to say keep away from this one. Everton could spring a surprise here as they seem to be playing far beyond their abilities. No Bet. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-0 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Even without center-backs, James Tarkowski and Jarrod Braithwaite. Everton managed to hold the Gunners to a goal-less draw until right at the very end. As usual Arsenal didn’t look particularly sharp, and labored to get on the scoreboard. It took a rare mistake by Jordan Pickford to gift the League Leader’s their first goal in the 89th minute. Substitute Vicktor Gyokeres just happened to be in the right place as the ball unexpectedly dropped at his feet with Pickford at the other end on the goal, after he had failed to manage a cross. In injury time, another Sub, Max Dowman, was presented with an even easier chance. Pickford had left his goal unguarded as he came forward to help with an Everton corner, looking for a late equalizer, at seven minutes into extra time. the ball fell to Dowman who galloped up the field and calmly stroked the ball into an empty net. Sixteen year old Dowman won’t get an easier goal, but his first makes him the youngest scorer in the top Flight of English football. | |||||||
WEEK 30 GAME 5 – Sat Mar 14th 2:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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WEST HAM |
MANCHESTER CITY |
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| Odds +1 | O/U 3 | Odds -1 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Manchester City can’t afford many more slip ups if they are to be serious rivals to Arsenal. Two points dropped last time out against Notts Forest could prove costly in the race for the title. If they don’t put West Ham down this week, then I think that will be the end to their League winning aspirations. Manchester City -1 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Another lost opportunity for City to close the gap on Arsenal (or at least stay close enough to benefit from any missteps). I think that this was the last real chance they had to keep it competitive and they blew it. The stats are unbelievable and City have only themselves to blame for so many lost points. West Ham had one shot, period, and that resulted in their goal. City had taken the lead, but that only lasted four minutes. There was a long list of missed chances for the visitors, and no-one was more surprised than the home team, when the game ended with the Hammers claiming a point. I would say that Manchester’s chances of catching Arsenal are next to zero now, and even if West Ham did gain a point they looked awful doing it. they are still going down. | |||||||
WEEK 30 GAME 6 – Sun Mar 15th 8:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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MANCHESTER UNITED |
ASTON VILLA |
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| Odds -1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds +1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Aston Villa’s form seems to have fallen off a cliff. But I expect that somewhere along the line their fortunes have to change. The problem they face this season is that they just do not score many goals. This could go close, but again a draw would not be out of the question. About time the Villans got their game rolling again. Aston Villa +1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 3-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: This was a pretty even game, up until half-time. They went in at 0-0 and Aston Villa were looking a little like their old selves. Then they reverted back to the clueless outfit that they have become over the last few weeks. Ross Barkley did score to bring the teams level for a short period of time, seven minutes, but then they just fell apart and United went on to bang in a couple more. Despite their position in the Table, Manchester don’t look like they belong that far up. In my mind that speaks volumes about how far Villa have fallen. | |||||||
WEEK 30 GAME 7 – Sun Mar 15th 8:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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NOTTINGHAM FOREST |
FULHAM |
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| Odds PICK | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds PICK | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: With a draw against Manchester City last time out, Forest’s fortunes look to be on the acsent. Their new manager has infused a degree of intensity in the team that was lacking for most of the early season, and I see them putting more distance between them and the bottom three. Nottingham Forest PICK. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-0 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: These two teams looked to be evenly matched. Dan Ndoye had Forest in front mid-way through the second half, but it was overturned by the slimmest of offside margins. Another precious point collected by the Trees keeps their head just above the drop zone, but only on goal average. Even if they do survive this season, they are going to need some serious help up front next year. They have only scored 28 goals all season, with only Wolves turning in less goals than them. | |||||||
WEEK 30 GAME 8 – Sun 15 Mar 8:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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CRYSTAL PALACE |
LEEDS |
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| Odds PICK | O/U 2 | Odds PICK | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Leeds continue their escape from the drop zone while Palace look to be going in the other direction. A Pick for this game looks to be about right, but for me I think a slight edge goes towards Leeds. The Whites have put up a tenacious fight to stay in the Topflight, and I think that at least a point here would make them happy. For a very modest bet I would say. Leeds PICK | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-0 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: The planets just did not align for Leeds this week. Horrible pass accuracy, 61%, and only a third of possession should have seen them buried. But only if they were playing any other team than Crystal Palace. Dominic Calvin-Lewin missed a penalty and shortly after Gabriel Gudmundsson was sent off for a second yellow card. Despite being a man down for all of the second half, Leeds managed to hang on for a welcome point in their quest to avoid the dreaded drop. Palace looked all at sea and the rest of their campaign doesn’t look very promising. Even sitting on 39 points, they should be happy when this season ends and they can regroup. | |||||||
WEEK 30 GAME 9 – Sun Mar 15th 10:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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LIVERPOOL |
TOTTENHAM |
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| Odds -1 1/2 | O/U 3 | Odds +1 1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: It’s hard to see Tottenham getting anything from this game. The dumpster fire that is raging in North London show no signs of going out anytime soon. Spurs’ best chance of a result is if West Ham and Nottingham Forest get beat. Liverpool have the capacity to lose games they should have won, but I don’t see that happening here. Liverpool -1 1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Looks like Spurs finally got the memo. A revitalized side took the field at Anfield, and battled back from a goal down to earn a much-needed point. Granted it took until the 90th-minute to bring it level, and even if Liverpool had most of the ball, Spurs kept at their job and found the equalizer. As has happened many times already this season, Liverpool gave it away right at the death. Of Tottenham’s two strikers, Dominic Solanke was a non-entity, he may have touched the ball two or three times, but was never really in the game. Richarlison was another story: most of the Spur’s efforts came from his running and hustle. Much to the home crowd’s displeasure, it was him that scored the visitor’s goal. Going back to his days at Everton, he has always had good luck at Liverpool and the crowd let him know it. | |||||||
WEEK 30 GAME 10 – Mon 16th Mar 2:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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BRENTFORD |
WOLVERHAMPTON |
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| Odds -1 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds +1 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: The last game this week is being played on Monday and Wolves travel South to Brentford. The Old Gold have shown signs of life lately, but it will still be a futile effort to escape the inevitable. Brentford have a possible eye on Europe next year, and they won’t get a better chance to improve on those plans. Brentford-1 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-2 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Not that it makes much difference, but I changed my prediction on this game at the last minute. Seeing how teams this week that shouldn’t have had any chance for a result had upset a lot of the heavy hitters, I decided to go with the underdog. Wolves have come alive of late, but too late, unfortunately. I don’t have a lot of respect for Brentford; past posts will back that up, although I haven’t been right in my assessments lots of times. The Bees were two goals up and should have won this pulling away. Wolves had other plans, however. They fought back and shocked the home team by tying things up with 13 minutes of regular time to go. All in all, Wolves were good value for their point. These teams were equally matched, and the visitors deserved the point. | |||||||