Hotshot Harry's Premier League

WEEK 18

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Predictions will generally be posted by Friday each week,
AND the analyses should be up by Wednesday following each weekend’s games.

The odds that I quote on each game are the first available and are quite
possibly subject to change as the game day approaches. 

WEEK 18 December 26-28

All times are Mountain Standard Time

LAST WEEK’S SUMMARY

WEEK 17

On a bit of a roll these last couple of weeks. Got six out of eight right in week 17, and what with last week’s numbers, we are hitting at about 85% right now. The Gold Star Pick came in again: Aston Villa over Manchester United-1/2 a goal. So things are looking up for Christmas. Manchester City are still hot on the heels of Arsenal and the bottom three look to be pulling away from the pack, but in the wrong direction! We have one game on Friday, seven on Saturday and two on Sunday, but next week everyone is playing mid-week so games will be coming thick and fast. I would urge fans to check back on the website and videos regularly as I may not be able to post all information at once considering the cluster of games. Thanks for hanging with me.

WEEK 18 GAME 1 – Fri Dec 26th 1:00 
HOME AWAY

MANCHESTER UNITED
The Red Devils

NEWCASTLE
The Magpies 

 Newcastle United Logo
Odds PICK O/U 2 1/2 Odds PICK
PREDICTIONS: One would think that with all the missing faces at Manchester, this would favor Newcastle. Well, I think it does, but The Red Devils put up a spirited performance at Aston Villa last week. Their lack of finishing let them down, and I think the same will happen this week. They may be without captain Bruno Fernandes as well, which won’t help their cause any. We all know that Newcastle don’t travel well, and I think a Pick for either team is a fair bet with a slight preference towards The Magpies. Newcastle. PICK.
RESULTS: 1-0
ANALYSIS:  I suppose that with Newcastle only winning one away game this season and Manchester not winning at home in two months something had to change! If you add the fact that The Red Devils were missing seven first team guys, they were without captain Bruno Fernandes and the team they fielded looked like it had been cobbled together with bits and pieces, puts one in mind of Frankenstein’s monster, then you might be forgiven thinking The Magpies had a slight edge. In lots of ways, they did. Certainly, in possession, 67% against 33%, shot attempts and corners, but as it turned out, not in goals. Patrick Dorgu scored in the 24th-minute against the general run of play and then they spent the rest of the game protecting that slim lead. In case you hadn’t noticed, Newcastle are rubbish away from home, it’s not that they are rubbish overall, it’s just that the games don’t seem to go their way once they leave Tyneside. As for Manchester U, much like their last game against Aston Villa, this merry band of misfits dig in, and they all really put forward an exceptional effort. If they keep this up, the regulars are going to have a hard time reclaiming their spots when they come back.

WEEK 18 GAME 2 – Sat Dec 27th 5:30 
HOME AWAY

NOTTINGHAM FOREST
The Tricky Trees

MANCHESTER CITY
The Citizens
Odds +1 O/U 2 1/2  Odds -1
PREDICTIONS: Manchester City have hit their stride, and I don’t see Nottingham Forest getting in their way. There is still much work to be done before Forest are truly safe from the relegation quagmire, and even if they are at home, I don’t see them getting much relief from this one. Manchester City -1
RESULTS: 1-2
ANALYSIS:  City should have run away with this, but as it was, they had to wait until the 83rd-minute to seal the deal. Neither side had a shot on goal in the first half, but within a couple of minutes of the restart, City were in front. Six minutes later they were all tied up courtesy of a strike by Omari Hutchinson. Manchester dominated the game, but it looked like the Tricky Trees might just squeak a point out of it. Not that they deserved it on balance, but football can be like that. Rayan Cherki scored the winner seven minutes before full time and the visitors were relieved to go home with all three points. Considering where they were just a few weeks ago, manager Sean Dyche has revitalized this team. Although they didn’t see much of the ball, and considering the opposition (from where I sit, I think City will be the top team at the end of the season), they still gave The Citizens problems. Their League position is still a little precarious, but I think they are on the right track to avoid the drop.

WEEK 18 GAME 3 – Sat Dec 27th 8:00
HOME AWAY

BRENTFORD
The Bees

BOURNEMOUTH
The Cherries
Odds Pick O/U 2 1/2 Odds Pick
PREDICTIONS: As erratic as Bournemouth can be, I still think they are a better team than Brentford. The Bee’s had the game in the bag last week against Burnley but gave up the equalizing goal in the dying seconds. It’s about time they got their act together and if they can’t get it done here, the rest of their season could look decidedly rocky. Bournemouth PICK
RESULTS: 4-1
ANALYSIS: Goals right at the beginning and end plus one in the middle gave Kevin Schade a hat-trick, aided by an own goal thanks to ‘keeper Petrovic and the Bee’s finished the game with four goals and three points. I may have to change my opinion on Brentford; I thought they would struggle this year and even be candidates for the drop, but they are proving me wrong. On the other side of the field, I didn’t see Bournemouth having this much trouble. As I noted in my predictions, “if they don’t see something out of this game, things look bleak,” well I think they are at that point. The rot needs to stop, and now, for large periods they looked like they had run out of ideas on what it takes to win a game of football. They shared possession time and actually had more shots than Brentford, but something is just not clicking, but they do have half a season to fix it.

WEEK 18 GAME 4 – Sat Dec 27th 8:00 
HOME AWAY

BURNLEY
The Clarets

EVERTON
The Toffees
Odds +1/2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds -1/2
PREDICTIONS: This game has got goalless draw written all over it. Burnley are given the edge at 1/2-goal underdogs, and perhaps a point last week at Bournemouth will give them the confidence to get something out of this. Everton aren’t exactly a goal-scoring machine, and they may get some help from a porous Burnley defense. For a small wager, I’ll take the Clarets to keep it close. Burnley +1/2
RESULTS: 0-0
ANALYSIS:  Well, I nailed that one yeah! Both these teams have what amounts to the same problem. They don’t have anyone that can score goals. Finding someone who wants to join a team that looks a shoo-in for relegation or one that, even though might have a brand-new stadium, is going to finish were they usually do, middle of the Table, with very little chance of European football next year, is not going to be easy. Two options: someone who is at the end of their career and could use a little going-away cash (problem with that is some team in the US will pay more for that kind of player), or an emerging new talent that could be snatched up cheap (that has its own problems, you might find a diamond in the rough, or just a lump of coal). I guess they both need to go shopping. Oh yeah there was a game in here somewhere. Pretty much a yawn fest. Burnley’s captain Josh Cullen had to come off with an injury, not sure how serious at the moment. One point for The Clarets, better than nothing, but not by much.

WEEK 18 GAME 5 – Sat Dec 27th 8:00
HOME AWAY

ARSENAL
The Gunners 

BRIGHTON
The Seagulls
Odds -1 1/2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds +1 1/2
PREDICTIONS: Arsenals lead at the top of the table is slowly being eroded. If current form is any measure, Manchester City will soon be leapfrogging them. If this game was being played at Brighton, I would say it could be headed for an upset, but as it is there could be an ill wind blowing around North London come Saturday. I’m going to stay away from this one. No Bet.
RESULTS: 2-1
ANALYSIS:  Arsenal continue their stuttering grasp on the top spot in the League Table, but as I have been saying for some weeks now, the cracks are showing. The Gunners were two goals up and cruising but then Diego Gomez managed to pull one back in the 64th-minute. There were 25 minutes of anxiety while the hosts clung onto their lead. Arsenal had plenty of wasted chances and Brighton were good value for the money. As noted, this may have come out differently if it was played on the South Coast, but ifs, ands and buts don’t count here, or anywhere else, for that matter. Brighton shouldn’t feel too bad about getting beat here, they put up a good fight, and it did run close.

WEEK 18 GAME 6 – Sat Dec 27th 8;00
HOME AWAY

WEST HAM
The Hammers

FULHAM
The Cottagers
Odds PICK O/U 2 1/2 Odds PICK
PREDICTIONS: A very welcome three points for Fulham last week, and a devastating defeat for West Ham at the hands of Manchester City. I think Fulham are a much better team than their table position would suggest, while The Hammers are awful almost beyond belief. The Cottagers can extend their good fortune courtesy of a hopeless attempt to field a half-way competent team that is West Ham. Fulham PICK.
RESULTS: 0-1
ANALYSIS: Fulham came to East London and left with what they came for. It wasn’t until the 85th-minute that Fulham scored the goal that they were looking for, and sent West Ham into an even deeper funk than they were in before the game even started. The Hammers wasted some soft chances that have become their trademark of late. Raul Jimenez scored the winner for Fulham, and in retrospect the result was fair. Fulham were the better side and West Ham offer little to suggest that they deserve to remain in the Premier League. There were lots of signs voicing the fans displeasure at the board and calling for major changes. At this point I fear it’s too little much too late. To my way of thinking, West Ham are toast. (and have been for some time).

WEEK 18 GAME 7 – Sat Dec 27th 8:00
HOME AWAY

LIVERPOOL
The Tricky Trees

WOLVERHAMPTON
The Hammers
Odds -2 O/U 3 Odds -2
PREDICTIONS: If Wolves ever had any chance to avoid the dreaded drop, it disappeared many weeks ago. Liverpool seems to have adjusted to the loss of Mo Salah (who, let’s be fair, has been below par for some time now) with the rapid emergence of Hugo Ekitike. The lad didn’t come cheap, with a transfer fee around $100 MIL but at just 23 years old, looks to be a solid investment for the future. The Reds are clear favorites, as one might expect, but as frequent followers of my predictions will have noticed in the past, I don’t like these big spreads. The early odds were Liverpool by -1 1/2 but that quickly went out to -2. Not saying that the Reds can’t win by three clear goals, but that extra 1/2-goal has put me on the sidelines. No Bet.
RESULTS: 2-1
ANALYSIS:  Liverpool had this all wrapped up, but then they seemed to switch off. They controlled all aspects of the game without much to show for it. Then just minutes before half-time, they struck with two goals within a couple of minutes of each other and made the game look like a mere formality. As the second half commenced, Liverpool looked like they were content to sit on their two goal lead and cruise through the next 45 minutes. They passed the ball between themselves as if there were only a few minutes left and they were just killing time. I’ve seen this nonsense again and again, and it always ends in tears. Eventually Wolves regained possession and punished the malingerers with a sharply-taken goal. In the end, Liverpool should have wiped the floor with a Wolves side that can’t buy a break. As it was, the home team did grab all three points, but I didn’t see anything to be proud about. In fact, if I was a Liverpool fan, I’d be pretty disgusted at this showing against a team that couldn’t play its way out of a paper bag.

WEEK 18 GAME 8 – Sat Dec 27th 10:30
HOME AWAY
SUNDERLAND

CHELSEA
The Blues

ASTON VILLA
The Villans
Odds -1/2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds +1/2
PREDICTIONS: This may go close. Chelsea should be a lot more efficient than the results that they eventually produce. They obviously have a discipline problem gathering yellow cards as if they were trying to complete a set. Aston Villa are much more composed and just because they are the underdogs, I’ll take them to extend their excellent run of results of late. Aston Villa +1/2
RESULTS: 1-2
ANALYSIS: This is strange stuff. It looks like this is Aston Villa’s game plan. You sit back and let your opponents come at you. You absorb all that they can throw, maybe go a goal or two down and then in the last 30 minutes start to play. I know it doesn’t sound like a plan that would work week after week, but here we are. I saw them do this last week against Manchester United and I know that they have done this against other teams, I just wasn’t noticing a pattern at that point. That is exactly what happened here. Chelsea was all over them in the first half and they went into the half one goal down. Ollie Watkins came on as a substitute and then almost like magic Villa start to play. I’ve seen the same strategy (if that is what it is) two weeks in a row and by crikey, it seems to work! Chelsea had this game done and dusted, with all the possession and control, but then Villa started to play. If this is a designed strategy, I’ve never seen anything like it. Seems to me that it is very dangerous, but up until now it’s working big time. Very exciting and this is going to be a method of play worth watching.

WEEK 18 GAME 9 – Sun Dec 28th 7:00
HOME AWAY

SUNDERLAND
The Black Cats

LEEDS
The Whites
Odds PICK O/U 2 1/2 Odds PICK
PREDICTIONS: As a pick might suggest this could go either way (I suppose they all could for that matter). Both of these teams are hot right now and a draw would probably be a fair result. Difficult to go with, or against, either one so I’m going to say. No Bet.
RESULTS: 1-1
ANALYSIS:  Pretty much as I expected: Sunderland came out and scored early, but then Leeds kicked in the afterburners and came at The Black Cats in full force. Their efforts were rewarded shortly after the break when Dominic Calvin-Lewin scored the equalizer. For just about all of the second half, Leeds pounded Sunderland and chalked up 17 attempted shots with 9 corners. Despite all the pressure, the Cats held out and were relieved to finish the game with a point. Leeds seem to be gaining confidence with every passing game and Sunderland are proving that they are no pushovers either.

WEEK 18 GAME 10 – Sun Dec 28th 10:30
HOME AWAY

CRYSTAL PALACE
The Eagles

TOTTENHAM
The Spurs
Odds PICK O/U 2 1/2 Odds PICK
PREDICTIONS: Spurs are still their inept selves, but Palace looks to be feeling the strain of a busy schedule and a lack of depth as far as experienced, reliable players are concerned. They started the season with some good results (lots of draws), but I feel the shine has come off their game somewhat. It’s about time Tottenham got back amongst the points, and I see that happening here. Tottenham. PICK
RESULTS: 0-1
ANALYSIS:  Tottenham finally get amongst the points. But it didn’t come easy. Archie Gray scored his first senior goal after Spurs already had two earlier scores annulled. It looks as though Palace are starting to feel the strain of lots of fixtures and a not very deep squad. Perhaps Tottenham are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, but it might be a little too early for celebrations. The game looked like an Aston Villa performance, with Spurs willing to sit back and soak up the pressure, then hit them on the break. Bit of a change from their usual strategy where they dominate possession, create multiple chances, but get precious little for their efforts.
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