WEEK 5
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Predictions will generally be posted by Friday each week,
AND the analyses should be up by Wednesday following each weekend’s games.
The odds that I quote on each game are the first available and are quite
possibly subject to change as the game day approaches.
WEEK 5 September 20-21
All times are Mountain Standard Time
LAST WEEK’S SUMMARY
Burnley. Chelsea should never have given up the tying goal to Brentford in the last minutes and Liverpool’s 27 shots to Burnley’s 3 should have produced more than they did. That’s it for week 4; lets get on to week 5.
WEEK 5 GAME 1 – Saturday Sept 20th 7:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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LIVERPOOL |
EVERTON |
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| Odds -1 | O/U 3 | Odds +1 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Last week against Burnley, Liverpool had a very frustrating time of it, and it wasn’t until the dying minutes of injury time that they finally came through. I don’t see a repeat of that here. They should take care of Everton in short order. The Toffees are themselves a better team than last year, but not good enough to take the current League champions especially at Anfield. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Liverpool still have the maximum number of points from five games. Like a lot of times last season they did not look particularly good in doing it. They had this game by the scruff of the neck with two first half goals by Ryan Gravenberch and Hugo Ekitike (a star in the making) but after the break they let Everton back into the game. Thirteen minutes after the restart Idriss Gueye banged one in for the Toffees and after that it was hanging on mode for Liverpool. An equalizer would not have surprised anyone at this point but Everton just couldn’t get the job done. Which brings up a salient point: after all the improvements that they have engineered this season, they still don’t have a player who is a consistent goal scorer. This problem needs urgent attention but probably won’t be solved until the next transfer window. | |||||||
WEEK 5 GAME 2 – Saturday 20th Sept 10:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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BRIGHTON |
TOTTENHAM |
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| Odds +1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds -1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Last year Brighton upset the Spurs twice. This year I think it will be different. The Seagulls have been all over the place this year: losing 2-0 to Everton and then coming back to beat Manchester City 2-1. Last week they were largely ineffective against Bournemouth. Spurs on the other hand are not the team they were last year. Under the tutelage of new manager, Thomas Frank, plus the addition of a whole slew of new talent, I expect them to take all three points this Saturday. Tottenham -1/2. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-2 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Spurs should never have given up two points in this game, but after going two goals down within the first half hour, it was always going to be an uphill struggle. Richarlison clawed one back just before the half and after the break it was mostly Tottenham’s game. New signing Xavi Simons came on around the hour mark and made an instant impression. Despite all their pressure, it looked like they might be looking at their second defeat of the season, but in the 82nd minute a cross by Mohammed Kudus went through goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen’s legs and was deflected by Jan Paul van Hecke into his own net. | |||||||
WEEK 5 GAME 3 – Saturday 20th Sept 10:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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WOLVERHAMPTON |
LEEDS |
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| Odds Pick | O/U 2 | Odds Pick | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Maybe, just maybe, this might be the week Wolves get their season in gear. Leeds have been scraping a few points here and there, but this game has draw written all over it. Pick’em looks like the right call as this could go either way. No Bet | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-3 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Leeds came to Wolverhampton looking for blood and they found it. It started well for the home team with a goal in the 8th minute, but it didn’t take long for Leeds to wake up. Before the half-time whistle was blown, Leeds had scored three of their own. In the second period Wolves started to get back into it, but it was ultimately a lost cause. The Old Gold still have no points yet this season and while that may be the kiss of death for most managers, Vitor Pereira was rewarded with a new three-year contract earlier this week. Sink or swim they are going to stick with their Portuguese head coach. | |||||||
WEEK 5 GAME 4 – Saturday Sept 20th 10:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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BURNLEY |
NOTTINGHAM FOREST |
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| Odds +1/2 | O/U 2-1/2 | Odds -1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS. Burnley play their second home game in as many weeks and after very nearly gaining a point against Liverpool last week, must be feeling very hard done by after giving up a penalty in the dying minutes. It might be too early to be seeing much change at Notts Forest, it will happen but perhaps not just yet. This game is so hard to predict that I’m saying no bet. No Bet | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Ange Postecoglou earned his first point after taking control of Forest a couple of weeks ago. They went screaming into the lead right off the bat with a second minute strike by Neco Williams, but had to settle for 1-1 going in at half time. At the final whistle that was still the score, and a draw was a fair result for both teams. Burnley only had a third of the possession but held their own against a transformed Nottingham side. Like last year they rely on a solid defense but it remains to be seen if that will be enough to keep them in the Premier League at the end of the season. So far the decision to bring in Postecoglou to replace Santo seems to have been the right move, but there is still lots of season to go. | |||||||
WEEK 5 GAME 5 – Saturday 20th Sept 10:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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WEST HAM |
CRYSTAL PALACE |
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| Odds Pick | O/U 2-1/2 | Odds Pick | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Tough to see the Hammers ever winning a game again, given their present form. They only have one worthwhile player, Jarrod Bowen, who incidentally has the worst haircut in all the Premier League, and that’s saying something! Crystal Palace are unbeaten yet in this season, and I see no reason that their streak should be broken here. Crystal Palace. Pick | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-2 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: The woes continue at West Ham. Having lost their last eight home games; the fans are not happy. The team was booed off the pitch by the few remaining fans at the end of the game, and it looks like manager Graham Potter should be looking in the want ads. When you see results like this, it’s always, nearly always, the manager that the axe falls on. But in fairness to Potter, he was handed a bad hand when he took over this club just a few short months ago. Most of his players are rubbish and his best players are mediocre to put it mildly. The fans might have more animosity towards the owners than the manager as there is a concentrated effort to get them out of the picture. As for the game! It was our Gold Star pick, so there was that but with 18 shots by Palace to 8 by the Hammers, it was really no surprise on the outcome. West Ham had more possession but do not have any real talent up front for conversions and their defense is in tatters. | |||||||
WEEK 5 GAME 6 – Saturday 20th Sept 12:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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MANCHESTER UNITED |
CHELSEA |
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| Odds Pick | O/U 3 | Odds Pick | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: You would think that the way United are playing, Chelsea would be clear favorites in this game. I think the odds-makers saw Chelsea’s performance last week and saw the same thing I did. For them to give up two points in a game they had won, shows a fundamental problem with the Blues. Maybe they are just tired, but there is cause for concern after last week’s collapse against a team that has the kiss of death written all over them. I’ll take Manchester to get back to winning ways and throw a another lifeline to beleaguered manager Reuben Amorim. Manchester United. Pick’em | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-2 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: It was about time for United to get going and Chelsea looked ripe for the picking in my eyes. Chelsea were up against it soon after the start with goalkeeper Robert Sanchez being sent off in the just the fifth minute. United were up two nil at half time, but by then United had been reduced to 10 men themselves after Casemiro was himself sent off for a second yellow card (and also after he had scored Manchester’s second goal). Chelsea made three substitutions in the opening 21 minutes, and when Cole Palmer went off. their attacking threat went with him. It was the 80th minute before The Blues had a shot on goal, and for large parts of this match they were all over the place. Bryan Mbeumo is starting to make his presence felt for the Red Devils, but they are not out of the woods yet. A welcome result for the home team sure, but I don’t know what to think about Chelsea’s performance over the last couple of weeks. | |||||||
WEEK 5 GAME 7 – Saturday 20th Sept 3:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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FULHAM |
BRENTFORD |
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| Odds -1/2 | O/U 2-1/2 | Odds +1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Brentford snagged an improbable point from Chelsea last week, but I don’t see Fulham letting them off that easy. Fulham notched their first win against Leeds last week; it wasn’t easy, but they are now on the front foot and should start collecting points here and there. Here seems like a good opportunity to take three from The Bees. Fulham -1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 3-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Fulham had a comfortable win over the Bees. Brentford spent less over the summer on new players than all the other teams, with the exception of Aston Villa, and it shows. Harry Wilson and Alex Iwobi again had an excellent game for the Cottagers, but it was Brentford that went into the early lead with a Mikkel Damsgaard goal. That only lasted for about twenty minutes when first Iwobi, and then two minutes later Wilson scored two quick goals to go in at the half 2-1 up. Shortly after the break an own goal by Ethan Pinnock put the cap on it but it could have been worse. A fourth goal by Rodrigo Muniz was nullified by VAR. One bright spot for Brentford was Josh King, who set up their goal for Damsgaard and at just 18 could be one to watch or as Brentford play it, the next one to be sold. | |||||||
WEEK5 GAME 8 – Sunday 21st Sept 9:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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SUNDERLAND |
ASTON VILLA |
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| Odds Pick | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds Pick | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Aston Villa are all at sea and have yet to score. Sunderland’s new goalkeeper had an excellent match last time out and if he can replicate that performance, Aston Villa still won’t have any goals at the end of Sunday. Sunderland’s crowd adds an extra component to any home game, and I see them taking all the spoils. Sunderland. Pick | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Well lookie here! Aston Villa get to score their first goal of the season. Sunderland defender, Reinildo Mandava, was sent off after 33 minutes for violent conduct; but to my eyes I thought that was a bit harsh. Nevertheless Sunderland soldiered on with ten men and finally scored the equalizer after going one goal down from a swerving free kick from Matty Cash. The heat may be increasing under Villa’s manager, Unai Emery. after such an horrible start to the season and if this doesn’t improve pretty quick there could be a big shake-up coming. A word on odds! The odds that I quote are what is offered by my Bookie three or four days before the game. They are subject to change and this game plus the Manchester City V Arsenal match both changed to 1/2 goal underdogs to Sunderland and City. Those were the odds that were offered when I placed my bets on both of those games and as both these games ended in draws, they were both winners for me. | |||||||
WEEK 5 GAME 9 – Sunday 21st Sept 9:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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BOURNEMOUTH |
NEWCASTLE |
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| Odds Pick | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds Pick | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Newcastle are starting to adjust to life without Alexander Isak, and their defense is playing solid football at the back. This could be a low scoring game, but Bournemouth have shown that they should be taken seriously this year and this is another game that could go either way. I don’t think I would risk any money on the outcome of this match up. No Bet. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-0 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Another useful point for a surprising Bournemouth team this season. I think Newcastle came South determined not to lose. Consequently this was a pretty boring game.With only one shot on goal by the Magpies, which was only one goal less than the Cherries, it made for a very low key afternoon for the fans. Newcastle’s players are tall, that makes them dangerous in front of their opponent goal and solid in front of their own. Knowing this Bournemouth tried not to give up to many corners or goal-scoring chances at their end of the pitch. The Magpies have four clean sheets (I think) this season so their defense is working. A big problem for them is Yoana Wissa. Their main striker is out injured for perhaps a month which does not improve their goal scoring chances going forward. | |||||||
WEEK 5 GAME 10 – Sunday 21st Sept 9:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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ARSENAL |
MANCHESTER CITY |
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| Odds +1/2 | O/U 2-1/2 | Odds -1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Not a good time for anyone to be playing Manchester City right now. Both these teams scored three goals apiece last week. With the addition of one of the best goalkeepers in the world, the reemergence of Phil Foden’s and Erling Haaland’s continued dominance in front of goal, I see Manchester going home with all three points on Sunday. Manchester City +1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Arsenal had the ball for most of this game but were lucky to snatch a point right at the end. Earling Haaland put City in front in the ninth minute, and after that it was Arsenal trying to come up with some kind of game plan. Despite having the ball most of the time, they couldn’t find a way through the City defense. Until, 90+3, Gabriel Martinelli found a way through and bagged the equalizer. The odds on this game changed from City being 1/2 goal favorites to 1/2 goal underdogs. so a draw was enough for me to bring home the bacon on this one. | |||||||