Hotshot Harry's Premier League

WEEK 11

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Predictions will generally be posted by Friday each week,
AND the analyses should be up by Wednesday following each weekend’s games.

The odds that I quote on each game are the first available and are quite
possibly subject to change as the game day approaches. 

WEEK 11 November 8th 9th

All times are Mountain Standard Time

LAST WEEK’S SUMMARY

WEEK 10

Let’s have a look at last week’s action. Well we didn’t do very well again last week; only three right and five wrong, but I need to make a couple of points here. We hit with my Gold Star pick again, Chelsea over Wolverhampton. As I noted in last week’s predictions, the odds did increase in Wolves favor, not that it did them a lot of good as they were soundly trounced 3-0. That’s four in a row now and our pot is growing. If anyone needs a comparison or a point of reference, I will state that as wobbly as my picks were this week, the, living legend Roger Bennett, of Men in Blazers fame, only had one right from seven picks. Now for the rest of the games, well some of them anyway. Manchester City made short work of Liverpool and as I mentioned at the start of the season, I think they can go all the way. The other main contenders, Arsenal, came up short at Sunderland. I felt happy about that one as I think the Black Cats are good value for their current League position. Crystal Palace missed captain Marc Guehi, out with an injury, and could only manage a draw against visitors, Brighton. Notts Forest might be on the road back, but it is still a pretty long road. Newcastle seem to have lost their way, and despite a victory West Ham, are still rubbish. As we head into another International break, only three points separate seven teams, so I think we can anticipate some competitive games when they return.

Be sure to check out my website, hotshotharrryspremierleague.com for next week’s predictions and anything Premier League.

WEEK 11 GAME 1 – Sat Nov 8th 5:00
HOME AWAY

TOTTENHAM
The Spurs

MANCHESTER UNITED
The Red Devils 
Odds PICK O/U 2 1/2 Odds PICK
PREDICTIONS: Tottenham are horrible at home. A problem that I partially addressed in last weeks analysis of the Spurs v Chelsea game. Manchester United don’t inspire confidence in the slightest. With a small wager, I’m going with the home team and not expecting to buy a yacht if I win. Tottenham PICK
RESULTS: 2-2
ANALYSIS:   No matter who the coach is or who the players are, and there have been many of both over the years, most of the time it still looks like the same old Spurs. At the half-hour mark, Bryan Mbeumo scored for United and for most of the game it looked like that was all it would take to win this game. Tottenham had no real ideas on how to make a game of it until late in the proceedings Mathys Tel came on as a substitute and five minutes later had the equalizer. Then one minute into injury time, Richarlison poked home what looked like the game winner for Spurs. United were not to be undone and with six minutes of injury time showing on the game clock, Matthijs de Ligt rose up from the far post and headed a second for Manchester. As we have seen many times in the past, Spurs snatched defeat from victory in the the dying moments. The Red Devils were far from impressive, which doesn’t say much for Tottenham’s efforts. As I have stated recently, the Londoners desperately need a #9 up front, and maybe someone in the middle who can put together some positive ideas for an attacking build-up.

WEEK 11 GAME 2 – Sat Nov 8th 8:00
HOME AWAY

EVERTON
The Toffees

FULHAM
The Cottagers
Odds -1/2 O/U 2 1/2  Odds +1/2
PREDICTIONS: Everton were lucky to escape with a point at Sunderland last week, while Fulham chalked up three goal against win-less Wolves to take all the spoils. The Cottagers are getting a 1/2 goal advantage here, and I think the best Everton can hope for is a draw. So I’m taking the Londoners to at least grab a point. Fulham . +1/2
RESULTS: 2-0
ANALYSIS:  Fulham have to be very disappointed with this result. Here was a chance to pull themselves away from the dreaded drop zone, but in the end they couldn’t get the job done. They are a better team when they play at home, but they certainly didn’t bring their A game to Mersey-side this weekend. Everton had the ball in the net three times before scoring the first goal that counted. They fell afoul of the offside rule repeatedly until Idrissa Gueye got on the scoreboard just before half time. With nine minutes of regular time left, Michael Keane secured the win for the home team and sent the Toffees in with all three points. Fulham need to get their act together as they are now only one point clear of the relegation candidates. And Everton are where they usually are, below the half way mark, which is probably where they will end up come next May.

WEEK 11 GAME 3 – Sat Nov 8th 8:00
HOME AWAY

WEST HAM
The Hammers

BURNLEY
The Clarets
Odds -1/2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds +1/2
PREDICTIONS: West Ham favorites, ha ha. You win one game and what…. all of a sudden your cock-of the-walk? Not for my money. Burnley may be headed straight back from whence the came, but West Ham will be keeping them company. I’ll take the Clarets to keep it close. If it’s any help, remember the Hammers are masters at screwing things up in front of goal, and Burnley still have a pretty good defense. Yeah well that being said, don’t go putting the rent money on this prediction. Burnley +1/2
RESULTS: 3-2
ANALYSIS: They may have scored three goals, but this still looked like the old West Ham. Six points from their last two games still leaves them in the doldrums, and any team just a little more capable than Burnley would have carried the day. As far as stats go, both teams were pretty even, but that doesn’t really tell the full story. OK there were five goals scored here but neither display by these two would inspire confidence that they could repeat this performance anytime soon. If this is the best that Burnley can come up with, then it’s down below you go at the end of the season.

WEEK 11 GAME 4 – Sat Nov 8th 10:30
HOME AWAY

SUNDERLAND
The Black Cats

ARSENAL
The Gunners
Odds +1 1/2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds -1 1/2
PREDICTIONS: Sunderland at home for the second week in a row. While I think that they dropped two points last week that were rightfully theirs, Sunderland are tough at home and while on paper this looks like an Arsenal win, I’ll take the Black Cats to keep it close. Sunderland +1/2
RESULTS: 2-2
ANALYSIS:  Sunderland shocked a lot of people this week, not me, with a two goal apiece game. As noted in my predictions, I thought the Black Cats might keep it close and they delivered. Sunderland pulled a crafty move by moving their advertising boards closer to the edge of the pitch in an attempt to limit Arsenals run up to long throws. Not sure if it worked, but they must be pleased with the final result. Sunderland scored first and it was two ex- Arsenal players, Granit Xhaka and Dan Ballard, who generated the energy to disrupt a high flying Arsenal. At the end of the game, it looked like the Gunners had snatched a win, but in the dying seconds of injury time, Brian Brobbey popped up to deny the visitors all three points. Arsenal have shown that they are not invincible, and Sunderland continue on their excellent start to the season.

WEEK 11 GAME 5 – Sat Nov 8th 1:00
HOME AWAY

CHELSEA
The Blues 

WOLVERHAMPTON
The Wolves
Odds -1 O/U 3 Odds +1
PREDICTIONS: Chelsea at home to Wolves. Why is it only a one goal penalty? OK the odds are early, but this should be a forgone conclusion. I think this will go out to at least -1-1/2 goal against Chelsea, maybe even a full 2-goal disadvantage. I’d say get in early before the odds change. Chelsea -1/2. After I wrote this, the odds did indeed go out to -1-1/2, still a good bet.
RESULTS: 3-0
ANALYSIS:  Chelsea appeared to have this game locked up within the first few minutes; the only thing that was missing was the goals. After the break the goals began to come with the Blues cruising to an easy win. 2/3’s of the possession and seven shots on target against no on-target attempt by Wolves told the tale of this game. It appears that Wolverhampton don’t have a manager at this point, and whomever ends up with this job is going to have a very steep hill to climb…with lots of it being in the Championship League. Incidentally this was my Gold Star pick of the week.

WEEK 11 GAME 6 – Sun Nov 9th 7:00
HOME AWAY

BRENTFORD
The Bees

NEWCASTLE
The Magpies

 Newcastle United Logo
Odds Pick O/U 2 1/2 Odds Pick
PREDICTIONS: Newcastle do not travel well and have trouble staying focused when they do, but I think Brentford have been overachieving.  The Magpies should be able to take care of this, so I’ll take the visitors. Newcastle Pick.
RESULTS: 3-1
ANALYSIS: Just when it looked as though Newcastle had turned a corner, they deliver up this disaster. With one shot on goal, which happened to go in, that was their best, and only, effort. They had the lead until the 56th minute, then Kevin Schade scored Brentford’s first. Two goals later, the Bees ended up with all the points and sent a sad flock of Magpies back North. If Newcastle could play all their games at home, they would be in much better shape, but like fine wine and small children, they do not travel well.

WEEK 11 GAME 7 – Sat Nov 9th 7:00
HOME AWAY

NOTTINGHAM FOREST
The Tricky Trees

LEEDS
The Whites
Odds -1/2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds +1/2
PREDICTIONS: This has draw written all over it. Both these teams desperately need the points and the question is; have Notts Forest progressed far enough in the short time that new manager Sean Dyche has been in control. Not quite yet I’m thinking, so I’ll take Leeds and the 1/2 goal advantage. Leeds +1/2
RESULTS: 3-1
ANALYSIS:  A highly spirited start to this game produced two goals in the first 15 minutes, but after that things quieted down until after the half-time whistle. Leeds went in front, but not for long, as Sean Dyche chalked up his first win as new manager of the Tricky Trees. Speaking of trees, he’s not out of the woods yet, as they are still deeply entrenched in the relegation zone. Leeds didn’t do themselves any favors either, as they could have put any points they gained here to good use. They need to keep an eye over their shoulder at the teams below them, as this is going to be a competitive race to the bottom. 

WEEK 11 GAME 8 – Sun Nov 9th 7:00
HOME AWAY

CRYSTAL PALACE
The Eagles

BRIGHTON
The Seagulls
Odds -1/2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds +1/2
PREDICTIONS: With their pile up of fixtures looming, Crystal Palace will start feeling the strain, but I think they can maintain the momentum for another week. This could be close, but I’ll take the Eagles at home. Crystal Palace -1/2
RESULTS: 0-0
ANALYSIS: As the result shows, these two teams were pretty evenly matched. This was a largely drab affair until Palace were awarded a penalty after Georginio Rutter went down in the penalty area. Before it could be taken, referee Tim Robinson was directed to the VAR, and after a review the penalty was rescinded, and Rutter booked for diving. A few late efforts by each team towards the end of the game, but in the final reckoning more or less, a game best forgotten. Marc Guehi did not play and his absence was felt. If he had been fit, I think that Palace would have prevailed.

WEEK 11 GAME 9 – Sun Nov 9th 7:00
HOME AWAY

ASTON VILLA
The Villans

BOURNEMOUTH
The Cheeries
Odds -1/2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds +1/2
PREDICTIONS: Another game that could go close. Bournemouth had their wings clipped last week at Manchester City, but despite the scoreline the Cherries put up a good show. I think they will get back to winning ways this week and take all the points back to the South Coast. Bournemouth +1/2
RESULTS: 4-0
ANALYSIS:  Aston Villa are not known for their goal-scoring prowess this season, but they took great strides to put that to rights against a lackluster Bournemouth side. Considering their good start to the season, they have slacked off lately. Conceding seven goals in their last two matches, three of them were scored by Manchester City, maybe the cracks are beginning to show. Maybe the Villans are starting to get with the program, and four goals from this game will certainly help morale. Eight teams are within three points of each other and the field is starting to bunch up.

WEEK 11 GAME 10 – Sun Nov 9th 9:30
HOME AWAY

MANCHESTER CITY
The Citizens

LIVERPOOL
The Reds
Odds -1/2 O/U 3 Odds +1/2
PREDICTIONS: Saving the best ’til last. This should be the game of the week. At the moment, City are 1/2 goal favorites and looks like a good deal to me, especially since they are at home. It’s the Citizens for me. Manchester City -1/2
RESULTS: 3-0
ANALYSIS:  There were times in this match that some of Manchester City’s moves looked like poetry. They could have gone in at half-time four or five goals up; instead of the two that they ended up with, even with Earling Haaland missing a dubious penalty. They were all over Liverpool like a wet blanket in the opening period, but slacked off a little after the break and let the Reds get back into the game somewhat. Not that they could do anything about the complete control and dominance that City brought to the game. Jeremy Doku finally cashed in on the promise that he has shown without any real results. He was like an Energizer Bunny running at the Liverpool defense at will. Many times he was the recipient of a fortunate bounce of the ball, but that could have been a result of his high energy hustle. He capped it off with a well-deserved goal in the second half, and if City and Doku can keep up this kind of quality, they will be serious contenders for the Title come the end of the season. 
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