WEEK 12
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Predictions will generally be posted by Friday each week,
AND the analyses should be up by Wednesday following each weekend’s games.
The odds that I quote on each game are the first available and are quite
possibly subject to change as the game day approaches.
WEEK 12 November 22-24
All times are Mountain Standard Time
LAST WEEK’S SUMMARY
Week 11
Even though there were no games this past week, I did publish a summary of Week 11’s games and posted it at the usual time. Not much point in going over it now, so I won’t. Most teams are settling down into their individual rhythms, with a few exceptions. Liverpool have been very disappointing and currently sit at #8. I wouldn’t write them off just yet, they are 8 points off of the top spot, but there is still lots of football to play. Sunderland are really flying high in the #4 spot. Some people may find this surprising, but considering the money that they spent before the games started, they were obviously serious about their return to the Premier League. At the other end of the pile, Wolverhampton should not have surprised anyone with their performances, as they have had the mark of death on them for some time. Same goes for West Ham who I said about half-way through last season that they had no right to be in the Top Tier. Nottingham Forest may have acted just fast enough to avoid disaster by hiring new manager, Sean Dyche, with the aim of pulling their chestnuts out of the fire. A big drop off from last year, but I guess it was in the cards. They have a hard road to travel, and are going to be fighting it out with Burnley to see who ends up in the dumpster.
WEEK 12 GAME 1 – Sat Nov 22nd 5:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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BURNLEY |
CHELSEA |
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| Odds +1 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds -1 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Burnley are having a tough time of it. Last year they had the entire professional league teams’ best defensive record. That’s 90-odd teams right there. Their goalkeeper went back to Manchester City, where the best he can expect is a back- up role. OK the Premier League is a lot tougher than almost any other league in the world, but here we are. An -8 goal average over 11 games, they were never known for their goal-scoring prowess, and this week they have to face Chelsea. One way of looking at this is: if Chelsea can’t get this done, then I would say they don’t deserve to be Number 3 in the table. I’ll take the Blues to cover the one goal disadvantage. Chelsea -1 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-2 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: As expected Chelsea had the better chances and never really looked challenged by Burnley. After dominating much of the game, the Blues went ahead with a diving header by Pedro Neto shortly before half time, but had to wait until the dying minutes to seal the deal with a strike by Enzo Fernandez. The win puts Chelsea into second place behind Arsenal, and drops Burnley a couple of spots and lands them just one place above the bottom. Chelsea showed a lot of confidence, and that will be tested next week when they have to face the League leaders, Arsenal. | |||||||
WEEK 12 GAME 2 – Sat Nov 22nd 8:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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LIVERPOOL |
NOTTS FOREST |
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| Odds -1 1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds +1 1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Nottts Forest claimed their second win of the season at the expense of Leeds’ last time out. They may be on the road to recovery, but I think this week may set them back a step. They certainly need a good result, as they have a lot of work to do if they are to escape the dreaded drop. They managed to win this fixture last year, but I don’t see a repeat of that on Saturday. Liverpool have lots of problems, but I can’t see this as being one of them. Liverpool -1 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-3 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: What the hell happened here? Liverpool have now lost half of their games this season, but this was by far the worst of the lot. Nottingham Forest are battling relegation and for them to come into Anfield and beat Liverpool for the second year running was a disaster for the home team. Maybe last year they were lucky, but not this time. They were easily the better team, but considering that they only had the ball for 25% of the time; that fact was even more astonishing. Ibrahima Konate had a horrible game and couldn’t seem to get anything right, and Milos Kerkez put in his usual uninspired game (missing an absolute sitter right in front of goal, very reminiscent of dear departed Timo Werner). They weren’t the only underachievers in the Liverpool squad, as the whole teamed looked lackluster and wishing they were someplace else. Also Alexander Isak was thrown into the deep end, and sank without a trace. In a short period of time maybe Sean Dyche has managed to turn Forest around, and this result must have given them a big boost. A few more results like this will see them climb clear of the relegation crowd. | |||||||
WEEK 12 GAME 3 – Sat Nov 22nd 8:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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BRIGHTON |
BRENTFORD |
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| Odds -1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds +1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Brentford are 12th in the league, a position that they are fortunate to have considering their overall talent, (or lack thereof). They seem to be the mirror image of Fulham. The breaks go against the Cottagers time and time again, while Brentford are leading a charmed life when it comes to decisions and their opponents playing below their potential. Brighton have the same number of points but with home field advantage, -1/2 a goal should not stop them from bagging all three points. Brighton -1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Igor Thiago put Brentford in the lead from the penalty spot at the 29th minute, and there it stood until the 71st minute when Danny Welbeck stepped up and equalized. Then just as the clock was clicking down, Jack Hinshelwood came off the bench to score Brighton’s second. Deep into injury time Kevin Schade was brought down in the Brighton box, and Brentford were awarded a second penalty. Unfortunately for the Bees, Thiago’s penalty was saved this time by Brighton’s ‘keeper, Bart Verbruggen. A draw would have been unfair to the Seagulls, as they were the better team for almost all of the game. But as we have seen many times before, it’s not how good you are, it’s the goals that count. | |||||||
WEEK 12 GAME 4 – Sat Nov 22nd 8:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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FULHAM |
SUNDERLAND |
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| Odds Pick | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds Pick | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: This looks like a draw to me, with a leaning towards Sunderland. The Black Cats are grafting out results and are not going to want to let go of their 4th place spot in the League. Fulham are bouncing just above the relegation zone, and really can’t afford any more set- backs. This could run close, so I don’t think that anyone should be risking too much on this. I think I’ll sit this one out. No Bet. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-0 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Finally Fulham get the breaks that have been eluding them all season, but they didn’t come easily. Sunderland came South with all intentions of keeping their unexpected run alive, and they nearly managed it. Fulham piled on the pressure, but it wasn’t until six minutes from the end that the stalemate was broken. I imagine the torrential rain would not have hampered the lads from the Tyne, as they see more than their fair share of precipitation where they’re from. The Cottagers relentless onslaught garnered them 23 shots at goal, opposed to only 4 from Sunderland. In the end a Raul Jimenez effort scored the only goal of the match and wrapped it up for the Londoners. The win gives them a little breathing room, and doesn’t leave the Black Cats too far from the table leaders. | |||||||
WEEK 12 GAME 5 – Sat Nov 22nd 8:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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WOLVERHAMPTON |
CRYSTAL PALACE |
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| Odds +1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds -1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Wolverhampton are all but done. I know there are 24 games left in the season but even if there were 124 game left, it wouldn’t be enough to save this sorry bunch. I don’t think they could have expected more from this season. They didn’t escape by much last year, and selling their best players certainly didn’t help. Crystal Palace have slipped a little from their promising start, but I cant see them giving up much here. Crystal Palace. -1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-2 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Crystal Palace were clearly the dominant side and could have been at least two goals up by half time. After the break, Wolves came out with renewed vigor, but it didn’t last long. The Eagles captain, Marc Guehi, was back from injury and his presence was immediately felt, even if he was lucky to escape without a second yellow card after bringing down Strand-Larsen and thwarting his run at goal. Within a six minute period, Wolves’ hopes were dashed as first Danny Munoz and then Yeremy Pino put the game out of reach for the winless Wanderers. The way things are going, Wolves could end up with the worse record ever recorded by a Premier League team. Perhaps they should play Liverpool next, and get their season rolling. | |||||||
WEEK 12 GAME 6 – Sat Nov 22nd |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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BOURNEMOUTH |
WEST HAM |
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| Odds -1 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds +1 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: West Ham managed to find three goals against Burnley last week. I think they were probably left over from a previous match. Bournemouth on the other hand, did get hammered (see what I did there?) in their last game at a re surging Aston Villa. I expect them to make amends against an uninspiring and unimaginative West Ham. Bournemouth at home should take care of the very shaky visitors. The early odds, last week had The Cherries at 1/2-goal underdogs, but that went out to a full goal. Even so, I’ll take the home team to prevail. Bournemouth -1 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-2 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Callum Wilson scored twice to give West Ham a point they certainly didn’t deserve. With less than 25% of the ball and only two shots on goal you can’t really expect to come away with much, but they did. They went into the break two goals up, but by the time the dust had settled (it was too wet to see much dust on the South Coast on Saturday) they were lucky to escape with a point. Two second half goals evened it up, but Bournemouth should have had the game won by this point. West Ham are now just a whisker above the relegation zone, but I’ll bet that they will be back amongst the flotsam and jetsam before long. | |||||||
WEEK 12 GAME 7 – Sat Nov 22nd 10:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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NEWCASTLE |
MANCHESTER CITY |
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| Odds +1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds -1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: I expected these odds to change, as this is what they were last week when they were first posted. In any case Manchester have the wind at their backs, while Newcastle seem to have lost their way. Dishing out a convincing 3-0 win over Liverpool last time out sets the Citizens up for a run at League leaders Arsenal. Newcastle were very disappointing against their last opponents; Going down to Brentford 3-1 has to sting. And I can’t see much relief for the Magpies, even if they are at home. Manchester City -1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Another travesty. This is as hard to believe as the Liverpool/ Notts Forest result, maybe more so! City missed many chances and could have easily been up by a couple of goals as the half time whistle blew. Sometimes the ball just doesn’t roll your way, and this was one of those days for Manchester. They were the better team in all the categories, but it was Harvey Barnes for Newcastle that stepped up to sink the Citizens at St James’ Park with two goals. It looked as though City could be closing in, or at least keeping pace with Arsenal, but that wasn’t to be. This was a golden opportunity missed, and speaking of gold this was my Gold Star Pick of the week, so I’m doubly unhappy about this one. | |||||||
WEEK 12 GAME 8 – Sun Nov 23rd 7:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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LEEDS |
ASTON VILLA |
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| Odds PICK | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds PICK | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Another game that could go either way. Leeds need to pull away from the bottom crowd and they can be tricky at home; in fact, they have only been beaten once in 23 or 24 games, (don’t quote me on that). Aston Villa have began to find the back of the net after a very barren start to the season. This could end in a draw and because neither one of these teams have developed any kind of consistent form I’ll say, No Bet. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1-2 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Leeds went out to an early lead with an 8th-minute goal and looked hungry enough to want more. The score being 1-0 at half time should have been the springboard for more in the second half from the home side, but Aston Villa had other plans. Morgan Rogers’ two goals in the second period put paid to the Whites’ hopes of a victory, and considering their intensity, they could feel hard done by. Somehow Aston Villa have quietly climbed the table, and now sit at #4; an astonishing achievement considering their awful start to the season. Even as Leeds sit in the relegation zone, I still think they have enough talent to save their season, primarily because the teams around them are simply inferior. | |||||||
WEEK 12 GAME 9 – Sun Nov 23rd 9:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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ARSENAL |
TOTTENHAM |
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| Odds -1 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds +1 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: This should be the game of the week…well for Arsenal and Spurs fans at least. The Gunners could only manage a draw at Sunderland and Spurs the same against Manchester United. Arsenal have Manchester City breathing down their necks, and truth be told City have a much better team than the League leaders. Tottenham are always looking for a result at this North London derby, and just like many other games, it could go either way. I’ll take Tottenham and their one goal cushion to make their short trip up the Seven Sisters road a profitable one. Tottenham +1 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 4-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: If Spurs had decided not to come out of the dressing room for this game, they could hardly have done worse. Eberechi Eze scored a hat-trick for the Gunners, and added that to a single goal from Leandro Trossard to close the game 4-1. Not to put too fine a point on it, Spurs were awful. They never looked as though they were in any danger of getting back into the game, and something needs to be done to stop the slide. Not sure what, but a promising start has gone belly up in no uncertain terms. | |||||||
WEEK 12 GAME 10 – Mon Nov 24th 1:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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MANCHESTER UNITED |
EVERTON |
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| Odds -1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds +1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: United are on the comeback trail in no small measure due to the re-emergence of Bryan Mbeumo’s form. Everton make the short trip from Liverpool, but I don’t see them getting much to take back with them. The Toffees did get a good result against cursed Fulham (2-0), but I think a return to their old ways is what awaits them at Old Trafford on Monday. Manchester United -1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Another result that should never have happened. Only 13 minutes into the match, Everton went down to 10 men when Idrissa Gueye was sent off for slapping his own team-mate, Michael Keane, in the face. Even playing the rest of the game one man short, Man United still couldn’t get a result. United had 25 shot attempts to Everton’s 3. plus 2/3rd’s of the ball. The home team were deservedly booed off at half time, and again at the end after a sorry evening. The main reason for Everton’s victory was Jordan Pickford, as usual, whatever they are paying him, it’s not enough. He pulled off a series of excellent saves to deny any chance of Manchester getting back into the game. To be fair though, the rest of the Toffees don’t look that good. Jack Grealish had a quiet night but that just goes to show you how bad United were. | |||||||