WEEK 8
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Predictions will generally be posted by Friday each week,
AND the analyses should be up by Wednesday following each weekend’s games.
The odds that I quote on each game are the first available and are quite
possibly subject to change as the game day approaches.
WEEK 8 October 18-20
All times are Mountain Standard Time
LAST WEEK’S SUMMARY
WEEK 7
Well that was a better week than last. We got four right, two wrong and the rest were either a push or no bet. The first winner was my Gold Star pick, Chelsea v Nottingham Forest, so I’m happy about that. Crystal Palace and Bournemouth are both continuing their excellent start to the season. Sunderland’s very large money outlay to strengthen their squad seems to be paying off, and while Liverpool are in a bit of a slump at the moment Manchester City, and Earling Haaland in particular are gathering a head of steam. We are a quarter of the way through the season and lots of things can change, but at the moment even though Arsenal are top of the League currently, I don’t think it will end that way. The main contenders for relegation are Wolverhampton, West Ham and Burnley with a strong challenge expected from Brentford and Nottingham Forest.
WEEK 8 GAME 1 – SAT Oct 18th 5:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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NOTTINGHAM FOREST |
CHELSEA |
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| Odds +1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds -1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Chelsea had a good result last time when they beat Liverpool 2-1. That was by far their best performance of the season. Maybe they are starting to take these games seriously at last? Notts Forest are looking pretty sickly right now. They have only scored five goals so far, joint bottom in that category with Wolves, I don’t expect their luck to change much this weekend. I’ll take Chelsea -1/2. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-3 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: It’s all a matter of perspective. A great result for Chelsea, and us, as this was my Gold Star pick, but not so much for Notts Forest manager (ex) Ange Postegoglou. You have to feel for the Australian. He was handed a shitstorm and never had the chance to bring in any new blood to try and get Forest back on track. For much of last season, the Trees were third or fourth in the League, much to the surprise of just about everyone. They started to fade rather dramatically towards the end, and I even had them picked as relegation candidates at the start. Looks like I was a year too early ’cause that’s what they look like right now. With the appointment of Sean Dyche, maybe their fortunes will improve, but I doubt it, not with the players they now have on their books. Last year they all played way above their capabilities and reality is now about to set in. Anyway to the game. Forest had chances in the first half, but let them slip away and once the second half started, they fell apart. Two quick goals put the end to any hopes of a result and a third six minutes from the end wasn’t needed to give Chelsea all three points, and Postecoglou his marching orders. | |||||||
WEEK 8 GAME 2 – Sat Oct 18th 8:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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BRIGHTON |
NEWCASTLE |
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| Odds PICK | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds PICK | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: These two teams are pretty well matched hence a Pick’em. Newcastle beat Notts Forest 2-0 last time, but in all honesty that’s not much to be proud of. Brighton could only get a draw at Wolves: another example of “nothing to write home about”. It would be a brave soul to predict with any degree of certainty the outcome of this; therefore I’m staying out of it. No Bet. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Like I noted in my predictions, this could have gone either way. Danny Welbeck scored the first of his two goals to put the Seagulls ahead in the 41st minute and he seems to have experienced a new lease on his career since moving to the South Coast team. Newcastle equalized in the second half and could have quite easily gone in front as they had the lions share of the ball, and looked to have the upper hand. But with just six minutes to go, Welbeck popped up to score an easy goal after finding himself in just the right position to poke in a deflected ball by Dan Burn. | |||||||
WEEK 8 GAME 3 – Sat Oct 18th 8:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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MANCHESTER CITY |
EVERTON |
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| Odds -1 1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds +1 1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: This should be a forgone conclusion. Everton are a slightly better team than last year, thanks mainly to Jack Grealish, and of course Jordan Pickford, who almost single-handedly has kept the Toffees in the Premier League these past few years. City shouldn’t have too much trouble dispatching this lot, but as these odds are coming out early, I expect them to change as we get closer to game time. I got burned last time out by waiting too long to make my bet; not this week, I’m going to jump on this ASAP just in case the numbers change. Manchester City -1 1/2 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-0 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Earling Haaland continued his outstanding season by chalking up two second half goals to sink a mostly clueless Everton. If it wasn’t for the usual heroics from goalkeeper Jordan Pickford, it could have been a lot worse. The Toffees defense kept City at bay for the first half, but it looked like the game plan was to sit back, let Manchester come at them and hope for the best. Well that didn’t work too well against a City team that was looking to get back into their winning ways after a couple of hiccups in the past weeks. Everton were without the inspiration of Jack Grealish, and it showed, they let City have 71% of the possession and the outcome was never really in doubt. The only question, for me at least, was if they would cover the 1-1/2 goal handicap, and they did with ease. | |||||||
WEEK 8 GAME 4 – Sat Oct 18th 10:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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CRYSTAL PALACE |
BOURNEMOUTH |
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| Odds Pick | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds Pick | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: This should be interesting. I feel Palace have been fortunate so far and their position in the Table is a little misleading. A return to reality is looming and I think this week Bournemouth are the team to deliver it. The Cherries’ only loss so far has been at Liverpool and after watching them play, they look like the real thing, for the time being at least. I doubt they can keep it up for the entirety of the season, but their form should carry the day for a little longer. Bournemouth. PICK. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 3-3 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: A lot of money had to have come in for Crystal Palace after the early odds were posted, because before the game started Bournemouth had gone out to 1/2 goal underdogs. That 1/2 goal made this match a winner for me. Truth be told the Cheeries looked to have this game sewn up as they were two goals up going into half-time. But in a highly entertaining game, the Eagles came roaring back to equalize with two quick goals five minutes apart by Jean-Phillippe Mateta. With only 60 seconds left on the game clock, Ryan Christie netted a third for Bournemouth. That surely should have won the game, but there was still what turned out to be 11 minutes of extra time. In the 7th minute, Palace were awarded a penalty and Mateta scored his third from the spot to save a point for the home team. | |||||||
WEEK 8 GAME 5 – Sat Oct 18th 8:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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BURNLEY |
LEEDS |
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| Odds +1/2 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds -1/2 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: These two should be familiar with each other having both climbed out of the Champions League together last year. Leeds’ form so far has been superior to Burnley’s, and I expect that when the end of the season rolls around Leeds will finish higher up the Table. There is still a lot of football to be played, but the Clarets need to be putting points in their column before much longer, or it’s going to be a quick return to the lower reaches. On reflection, this could be a close game, so I think I’ll sit this one out. No Bet | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-0 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: You can’t win a game unless you have the ball. While that may be true in most cases, obviously not all. With 2/3’s possession of the ball and 14 shots plus a 90% pass accuracy, Leeds still managed to get beat 2-0. The Whites piled on the pressure, but Burnley fell back in defense and managed two breakaway strikes to give the home side three much needed points. Unfortunately this kind of behavior will not stand up against most of the other Premier League sides. The Clarets were never a high scoring team and even if they did have the best defense in all of English professional football last season, it will not be enough to save their bacon this time around. A welcome respite to be sure, but it will only give false hope to a team that is destined for a quick return to the Championship League. West Ham, Wolverhampton, Brentford and Notts Forest may yet have a say in that, and I think they can all be thankful that only three will get the push, well two of them anyway. | |||||||
WEEK 8 GAME 6 – Sat Oct 18th 8:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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SUNDERLAND |
WOLVERHAMPTON |
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| Odds PICK | O/U 2 | Odds PICK | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Of the three newly promoted teams, Sunderland are the most successful at the moment. They are nestled safely in the middle of the Table currently, but they need to beat the likes of Wolverhampton if they are to stay in the safe zone. Wolves scraped out a point against Brighton in week 7, but I can’t see enough improvement to save their bacon at this point. The Black Cats at home should get this done. Sunderland. PICK | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-0 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Wolves came to play and despite not having won a game yet this season, they put up a fair fight. Sunderland’s Stadium of Light is not an easy place to come and get a result, due in large part to the Black Cats’ rabid fan base. It could have been very different for a Wolverhampton side that really didn’t start playing until the second half. By that time, they were already a goal down, but came out swinging after the break. They couldn’t break through Sunderland’s defense, and a very unfortunate own goal very late in the game injury time, gave the home team all the spoils. | |||||||
WEEK 8 GAME 7 – Sat Oct 18th 10:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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FULHAM |
ARSENAL |
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| Odds +1 | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds -1 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Arsenal should be too strong for Fulham. The Cottagers have had some bad luck so far, but after going in front of Bournemouth late in their last game, they seemed to lose the plot and succumbed to three quick goals. Arsenal will not be open to giving up their 1st place spot, and I see them brushing Fulham aside with relative ease. Arsenal -1 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Fulham can be tricky at home and they are a better team than their League position would suggest. They put some nice moves together and I think they deserve to be higher in the table. Arsenal did have the ball 62% of the time and as they are now top of the table, they should have made a more convincing show of beating the Cottagers. If they play the kind of unconvincing football that was on display here, I don’t think they will be top for long. Leandro Trossard scored his first goal since last April, but they really don’t look like League champions to me. | |||||||
WEEK 8 GAME 8 – Sun Oct 19th 7:00 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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ASTON VILLA |
TOTTENHAM |
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| Odds PICK | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds PICK | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Aston Villa were slow getting out of the gate this year, but they seem to have found the back of their opponents net in the last couple of games. Not that it’s going to do them much good at Spurs on Sunday. Tottenham are at home, and if they are to keep pace with Arsenal, Liverpool etc. they need all three points here. They look good value if the odds stay at Pick’em. Tottenham. PICK. | |||||||
| RESULTS: 2-1 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Not the biggest upset of the week but close. Spurs home form is dismal and to go down to, until recently, a sub-par Aston Villa side is not a good sign after their impressive start to the season. They scored early, with a Rodrigo Bentancur goal in the first five minutes. Aston Villa came back and pounded two in from outside of the box to give them all the points. As far as creativity goes, Tottenham showed very little in attack and manager Thomas Frank must not be very happy with this showing. This has to be turned around and fast before the old kind of Spurs’ style of play takes hold. “That’s so Spursy,” used to sum up a lot of past efforts by this North London team. It’s a slogan that they come by honestly and with Frank’s arrival, fans were hoping that those days were behind them. Perhaps not quiet yet it seems. | |||||||
WEEK 8 GAME 9 – Sun Oct 19th 9:30 |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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LIVERPOOL |
MANCHESTER UNITED |
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| Odds -1 | O/U 3 | Odds +1 | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: Even after losing their last three games, Liverpool should not be troubled by an unimaginative Manchester side. They may have beaten Sunderland in their last match, but it still looked like the old team from last year. There has been some improvement, but you wouldn’t notice it, unless you looked real hard. They have introduced a new goalkeeper, Senne Lammens, Bryan Mbeuno has not produced the form that made him worth approx $80 mil in his transfer from Brentford, and neither has Matheus Cunha whose price tag came in around $70 mil. I see Liverpool returning to their winning ways. Liverpool -1 | |||||||
| RESULTS: 1 – 2 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Now this was the biggest upset of the week. For Manchester United to come into Anfield and leave with all three points must have surprised almost everyone. Bryan Mbeumo showed some of the promise that made him a prime target for United to acquire in the summer break. With the game barely underway, he scored in the second minute and left Liverpool chasing an equalizer for most of the afternoon. Cody Gakpo thought he had it in the 78th minute only to see a Harry Maguire header six minutes from the end seal the victory for the visitors. Liverpool are in a serious slump right now and a solution needs to be found muy rápido. Alexander Isak does not seem to be on the same page as his team-mates and has yet to show the form he displayed before he left Newcastle in the summer; he was substituted in the 72nd minute. Hungarian Milos Kerkez looks to be an even bigger problem. To rate him as mediocre at this point is being grossly generous: his performances at this stage of the season have to be rated as useless. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him dropped for the next games. Liverpool have their problems, but let’s not forget Manchester United are pretty pathetic themselves. Apart from some improvement on Mbeumo’s part, they still don’t inspire much confidence. Bagging three points at Liverpool is an achievement, no question, but they still look like the same bunch of underachievers that have been on display since at least the start of last season. | |||||||
WEEK8GAME 10 – Mon Oct 20th 1:00pm |
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| HOME | AWAY | ||||||
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WEST HAM |
BRENTFORD |
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| Odds PICK | O/U 2 1/2 | Odds PICK | |||||
| PREDICTIONS: The useless against the clueless. Take your pick who is who. This should be a doozy. If both of these teams could manage to lose, that would be a fair result. Putting any kind of money on either one of these should require an intervention from family or friends. The way it looks to me is that both of these will be joining each other in the 2nd tier next year. No Bet | |||||||
| RESULTS: 0-2 | |||||||
| ANALYSIS: Never let it be said I didn’t warn ya. This was some of the worst display of football I’ve seen in a long long time. It would be funny if it wasn’t so tragic. It reminded me of a circus, lots of clowns, but not too many animals. OK Brentford won but The Little Sisters of the Poor could have beaten this shower. Not much point in reviewing this game, it was so horrible that, like a really bad film, you get to the point were it becomes entertaining on a whole different level. Nothing to do with football but just watching to see who can invent different ways to screw things up. If there was any justice in this world, apart from paying the supporters to turn up at these games, these two should go straight down to Division 1 or 2 without bothering to stop at the Championship League. | |||||||