Hotshot Harry's Premier League

WEEK 33

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Predictions will generally be posted by Friday each week,
AND the analyses should be up by Wednesday following each weekend’s games.

The odds that I quote on each game are the first available and are quite
possibly subject to change as the game day approaches. 

WEEK 33 April 18–20

All times are Mountain Standard Time

LAST WEEK’S SUMMARY

WEEK 32 

Big news at both ends of the table. Arsenal get beat at home by Bournemouth and Tottenham slipped into the relegation zone. Arsenal rolled out their regular uninspiring performance and finally paid the price. Their nine point lead over second place Manchester City has begun to evaporate. City have a game in hand and that is against Crystal Palace, which is scheduled for May 22nd. They face lowly Burnley in the middle of next week and if they win that (and they should) and beat Arsenal who they play this weekend, then this Title race just got a whole lot more interesting. In the basement, Spurs managed to lose again and West Ham demolished Wolves 4-0. Only six games left to get their toes out of the fire, and I’m finally seeing so called experts suggesting that the problem at Tottenham is the players not the manager. Hate to say I told you so, but I’ve been saying that for over a year, look it up. On to my predictions for the upcoming week. Harry.

WEEK 33 GAME 1 – Sat Apr 18th 5:30 
HOME AWAY

BRENTFORD
The Bees

FULHAM
The Cottagers
Odds PICK O/U 2 1/2 Odds PICK
PREDICTIONS: Brentford are pushing for a top five finish that would put them in Europe next year in the Champions League. They will have plenty of competition for that spot as there are seven teams in the middle of the table with only four points separating them. Fulham are in the bottom of that pile, and realistically don’t have much chance of making the grade. Brentford at home, even if they are only 5 miles from Fulham’s ground, should have the edge. Could be close. Brentford. PICK.
RESULTS: 0-0
ANALYSIS:  Yeah, it was close. Both teams had to settle for a point and aside from a spectacular save by Bernd Leno right at the end it always looked like it was going to end in a draw. Dango Quattara thought he had the game won, but that was before Leno’s heroics. There were chances for both teams but no-one seemed to have the finishing touch. it should be noted that Fulham didn’t have a shot on target and it really wasn’t their best showing of the season. At the end of the season these two are going to be neighbors in the middle of the pack. I see a slight improvement in Fulham and a slight slide in Brentford before it’s all done and dusted.

WEEK 33 GAME 2 – Sat Apr 18th 8:00 
HOME AWAY

LEEDS
The Whites

WOLVERHAMPTON
The Wolves
Odds – 1/2 O/U 2 1/2  Odds + 1/2
PREDICTIONS: Leeds’ home record shows how hard it is for visiting teams to get a result here. A defeat by Wolves will see them drop to the lower reaches next year, an outcome that has been haunting the team all season. Leeds’ win over Manchester United last week will give them a boost, not that I think they will need it, but I can’t see the Wolves getting any kind of reprieve. Leeds to put them out of their misery. Leeds. -1/2
RESULTS: 3-0
ANALYSIS:  Pretty much as expected Leeds made short work of a Wolves side that is looking to play a whole lot of different team’s next season. At 39 points Leeds look to be safe for an extended stay in the Premier League. After a season of consolidation, if they can secure some new talent, they could become a significant force next year. With just one shot on target The Old Gold never looked like they were going to be anything other than punching bags for a very confident Leeds side. James Justin opened the scoring with a spectacular bicycle kick. That was followed just two minutes later with a strike by Noah Okafor. Once the second period commenced it was obvious that Leeds were not going to let their lead slip. For the remainder of the game it was all Leeds and right at the death they were rewarded with a penalty that put the icing on the cake. These three points should save Leeds and at the same time doom Wolves.

WEEK33 GAME 3 – Sat Apr 18th 8:00
HOME AWAY
Newcastle United Logo

NEWCASTLE
The Magpies

BOURNEMOUTH
The Cherries
Odds -1/2 O/U 3 Odds +1/2
PREDICTIONS: Bournemouth have made a living out of draws this year and given Newcastle’s widely erratic form, this has the look of a stalemate written all over it. The Cherries are getting a 1/2-goal advantage; therefore they look like the best bet for me. Bournemouth +1/2
RESULTS: 2-1
ANALYSIS: Bournemouth continue their unexpected revival. A few weeks ago, they looked pretty useless but a series of draws plus a win against Manchester United last week has given life to a team that was destined to be solid also-rans. In this game they had lots of help from a Newcastle team that finds new ways to screw up every week. The fans are not happy at St Andrews, and they let their team know it. Bournemouth’s win gives legs to their quest for European football next season while it does the opposite for Newcastle. As has become a regular pattern for the Magpies they gave it all up in the closing minutes. They had managed to equalize halfway through the second half but fell apart at the end when Adrien Truffert punched home the winner. As other people have stated, lots of Newcastle’s players look like the season can’t end soon enough. The way things are going if it ended today, it would save manager Eddie Howe more embarrassment that I think, unfortunatly, thats what awaits.

WEEK 33 GAME 4 – Sat Apr 18th 10:30 
HOME AWAY

TOTTENHAM
The Spurs 

BRIGHTON
The Seagulls
Odds Pick O/U 2 1/2 Odds Pick
PREDICTIONS: It would be a brave soul that would risk much on this game. Brighton have put together some encouraging results of late. Is this the week that Spurs finally wake up? I seem to say this every week, but they need to start getting some results as time is running out. I still think they will avoid the drop, but it needs to start now. No Bet.
RESULTS: 2-2
ANALYSIS:  Well, the good news is Tottenham didn’t get beat; the bad news is Tottenham didn’t win. There was more of a spark there as the team seemed to be trying harder, but you can’t make a fine suit out of a flour sack. Bottom line is; if you don’t have the players with the necessary skill set it makes little difference how hard you try. Giving up two goals, both in extra time at the end of both halves just about sums up Spurs season. Still in the relegation zone with only five games left. All eyes will be on Crystal Palace and West Ham on Monday.

WEEK 33 GAME 5 – Sat Apr 18th 1:00 
HOME AWAY

CHELSEA
The Blues

MANCHESTER UNITED
The Red Devils
Odds Pick O/U 2 1/2 Odds Pick
PREDICTIONS: The bump that United got after they hired their new manager has begun to wear off. Chelsea needs to make amends for the humiliating defeat they suffered at the hands of Manchester City last week. While the same could be said for United’s poor performance against Leeds last Monday, I don’t see them getting any comfort from the Blues on Saturday. Chelsea. PICK.
RESULTS: 0-1
ANALYSIS:  Whatever has gone wrong at Chelsea is serious. Twenty-one shots and only three on target for the entire match. United only had one shot on target; difference was theirs counted. Manchester United are not that good and yet Chelsea couldn’t find a goal, and they have now failed to score in their last four matches. Alejandro Garnacho came on as a substitute for injured Estavao in the 14th minute and right there things didn’t look good for Chelsea. Garnacho put in his normal useless contribution to the game and it was him losing the ball that paved the way for United’s game winning goal. When looking at his overall impact at Chelsea this season I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s offloaded in the summer. If they can find anyone daft enough to pay for him.

WEEK 33 GAME 6 Sun Apr 19th 7:00
HOME AWAY

NOTTS FOREST
The Tricky Trees

BURNLEY
The Clarets
Odds -1 O/U 2 1/2 Odds +1
PREDICTIONS: Burnley are too far gone at this stage to be saved. Although not yet eliminated mathematically, there is little hope for a reprieve at this point. Notts Forest did well last week getting a point against Aston Villa, and I see them padding their points total against a doomed Burnley side. Forest have scored fewer goals, with the exception of Wolves, than everyone else in the Premier League. That being said, to win by two clear goals might be a tall order. I think they’ll win, but wouldn’t bet the house on it. Nottingham Forest. -1
RESULTS: 4-1
ANALYSIS: Burnley experienced a ray of hope on the stroke of halftime when they took the lead with a goal from Zian Flemming. It was the only bright spot in an otherwise uneventful first period. That changed after the second half got underway. Igor Jesus was brought on at the break and looked to give the home team some much needed inspiration. Morgan Gibbs-White had a 15-minute spell were he could do no wrong and in that time frame had chalked up three goals. Jesus himself added an unnecessary fourth deep into injury time to send Burnley back home with empty hands and a quick return to the Champions League.

WEEK 33 GAME 7 – Sun Apr 19th 7:00 
HOME AWAY

EVERTON
The Toffees

LIVERPOOL
The Reds
Odds PICK O/U 2 1/2 Odds PICK
PREDICTIONS: I see these odds changing come game time. While Liverpool have their problems, they are head and shoulders above a very fortunate and mediocre Everton side. Everton seem to do better than expected against their longtime rivals, but not this week. Liverpool. PICK
RESULTS: 1-2
ANALYSIS: Ten minutes into an eleven-minute added time period Liverpool snatch the winner from a Virgil van Dijk header. The first 25 minutes were all Everton as the Reds struggled to contain a determined onslaught from the home team. As the game progressed Liverpool settled and were rewarded with a Mo Salah goal at the 29th minute mark. After the break The Toffees equalized with a close-range goal from Beto. Up until this point Alexander Isak’s move from Newcastle has been a nightmare. A prolonged injury has had him sidelined for much of the season and in this game he was a complete non-entity. Plenty of action throughout the game and Everton certainly didn’t look intimidated by their cross-town rivals. In the end all the major stats were in Liverpool’s favor and even if it did take every last second to secure victory the better team won.

WEEK33 GAME 8 – Sun Apr 19th 7:00 
HOME AWAY

ASTON VILLA
The Villans

SUNDERLAND
The Black Cats
Odds -1/2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds +1/2
PREDICTIONS: Sunderland are safely nestled in the middle of the table and Aston Villa are clinging on with their fingernails to fourth place. The Black Cats can be difficult to beat, even when they are not at home, and Villa are not a model of consistency. Again, this has the look of a draw on it, so I’ll go with the team that’s getting the edge. Sunderland. +1/2
RESULTS: 4-3
ANALYSIS: Ollie Watkins seems to have regained his form after a particularly barren stretch. With the two he scored in this game he has now six goals from his last five games. Sunderland came from behind late in the game and were looking at a draw when Tammy Abraham popped up three minutes into injury time to grab all three points. A cruel blow for a plucky side that had gone toe-to-toe with Villa and deserved at least a point. The Villans will retain their fourth-place ranking and as the top five teams will be getting into the European Champions league next year their position looks safe.

WEEK 33 GAME 9 –Sun Apr 19th 9:30 
HOME AWAY

MANCHESTER CITY
The Citizens

ARSENAL
The Gunners
Odds -1/2 O/U 2 1/2 Odds +1/2
PREDICTIONS: The big one. With Arsenal losing last week and City beating Chelsea, the Gunners lead was reduce to six. Manchester have a game in hand and that will be played next Wednesday against Burnley. What this adds up to is if City take all three points on Sunday and beat Burnley, this race is going to be tied up. Manchester looked very slick last week against Chelsea, while Arsenal looked very disjointed against Bournemouth. Therefore. Manchester City. -1/2
RESULTS: 2-1
ANALYSIS:  City always looked the better side. It was a ridiculous mistake by goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma that gifted Arsenal their goal. He dithered over a goal kick right in front of his goal and Kai Havertz was on him. The resulting kick bounced off the Arsenal player and rolled into the net. That’s the sort of bonehead move that will haunt you for the rest of your playing career. It was always Cities game and the eventual scoreline makes it look closer than it was. Arsenals lead now has whittled down to three points and City still have a game in hand, against Crystal Palace, and there is also only a two-goal difference between the two sides. Manchester have to play Burnley on Wednesday so that two goal deficit could become much closer come Wednesday night.

WEEK 33 GAME 10 – Mon Apr 20th 1:00 
HOME AWAY

CRYSTAL PALACE
The Eagles

WEST HAM
The Hammers
Odds PICK O/U 2 1/2 Odds PICK
PREDICTIONS: This is tough to predict. In my book they are both as useless as each other. West Ham need it more than Palace, but lots of times that doesn’t make much difference. This could go either way so I’m staying out of it. No Bet.
RESULTS: 0-0
ANALYSIS:  Yeah, this went pretty much as expected. A PICK was a good call on this. As far as the stats went, they were about equal in all categories. Neither one of these sides has anyone who can reliably put the ball in the net. Crystal Palace did have, what they thought was a goal, only to have it nullified buy a ruling for handball. The score, or no score, gives West Ham a point but only leaves them two points clear of Tottenham who sit just below them in the relegation zone.
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